地震活动性的定量化及其在地震中短期预报中的应用

在分析描述地震活动性的各类参数的基础上，认为Ａｂ值可以较好地定量描述一个地区的地震活动增强和平静特征。本文使用１９７２～１９９６年期间华北地区地震资料进行Ａｂ值的空间扫描，研究中强以上地震前的中短期异常变化。结果表明在中短期阶段，半数震例的Ａｂ值中期异常区出现明显的缩小或消失，也有少量地震在临震前１～３个月再次出现明显增大。文中还就Ａｂ值进行中短期预报的有关问题进行了讨论。

SEISMISITY QUANTIFICATION AND ITS APPLICATION TO MEDIUM SHORT TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

Based on the analysis of various types of seismicity parameters, it is considered that the strength and quiet characteristics of a region seismicity are better described quantitatively using Ab value The space scan of Ab values was completed with 1972～1996 earthquake data of north China region to study medium short term anomalous variety before a moderate or strong earthquake It is concluded that the Ab value medium term anomalous area of half of the earthquake cases obviously contracted or disappeared in the medium short term, and obviously enlarged also again in 1～3 months before a few earthquakes The problem of earthquake prediction is discussed based on the Ab value