| 江苏及邻区地震趋势的极值理论分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李强,谢华章.江苏及邻区地震趋势的极值理论分析[J].防灾减灾工程学报,1998(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 李强 谢华章 |
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| 作者单位： | 江苏省地震局 |
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| 摘 要： | 极值理论是概率论中的一个分支，在许多领域已被广泛应用。本文用历史地震资料对江苏及邻区作大震级范围的极值理论分析，用近几十年来的小震资料分别对苏北地区和苏南地区进行了较小震级范围的极值理论分析，对未来按不同的年份进行了缺震估计，并对１９９５年９月２０日的苍山５．２级地震、１９９６年１１月９日的南黄海６．１级地震作了内符检验。
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| 关 键 词： | 极值反演 地震预报 复发周期 |
APPLICATION OF EXTREME THEORY TO EARTHQUAKE TENDENCY ANALYSIS FOR JIANGSU AND ADJACENT AREA |
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| Li Qiang,Xie Huazhang.APPLICATION OF EXTREME THEORY TO EARTHQUAKE TENDENCY ANALYSIS FOR JIANGSU AND ADJACENT AREA[J].Journal of Disaster Prevent and Mitigation Eng,1998(1). |
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| Authors: | Li Qiang Xie Huazhang |
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| Abstract: | The extreme theory is a method of probabilistic statistics and is widely used in many subjects. In this paper, with historical and recent earthquake data, the earthquake tendencies within the range of large magnitude in Jiangsu area, and within the range of small magnitude in north Jiangsu and south Jiangsu area are analyzed with extreme theory separately, and the lack number of earthquake in different years in the future is evaluated. And also Cangshan M S 5.2 earthquake and south Yellow Sea M S 6.1 are examined. |
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| Keywords: | extreme theroy earthquake prediction reccurrence period |
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