Modeling the Impacts of Two Bark Beetle Species Under a Warming Climate in the Southwestern USA: Ecological and Economic Consequences |
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Authors: | Kristen M Waring Danielle M Reboletti Lauren A Mork Ching-Hsun Huang Richard W Hofstetter Amanda M Garcia Peter Z Fulé T Seth Davis |
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Institution: | (1) School of Forestry, Northern Arizona University, PO Box 15018, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA |
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Abstract: | Predicted climate warming is expected to have profound effects on bark beetle population dynamics in the southwestern United
States. Temperature-mediated effects may include increases in developmental rates, generations per year, and changes in habitat
suitability. As a result, the impacts of Dendroctonus frontalis and Dendroctonus mexicanus on forest resources are likely subject to amplification. To assess the implications of such change, we evaluated the generations
per year of these species under three climate scenarios using a degree-day development model. We also assessed economic impacts
of increased beetle outbreaks in terms of the costs of application of preventative silvicultural treatments and potential
economic revenues forgone. Across the southwestern USA, the potential number of beetle generations per year ranged from 1–3+ under
historical climate, an increase of 2–4+ under the minimal warming scenario and 3–5+ under the greatest warming scenario. Economic
benefits of applying basal area reduction treatments to reduce forest susceptibility to beetle outbreaks ranged from 7.75/ha (NM) to7.75/ha
(NM) to 95.69/ha (AZ) under historical conditions, and 47.96/ha (NM) to47.96/ha (NM) to 174.58/ha (AZ) under simulated severe drought conditions.
Basal area reduction treatments that reduce forest susceptibility to beetle outbreak result in higher net present values than
no action scenarios. Coupled with other deleterious consequences associated with beetle outbreaks, such as increased wildfires,
the results suggest that forest thinning treatments play a useful role in a period of climate warming. |
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