A spatially explicit backcasting approach for sustainable land-use planning |
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Authors: | Eva Haslauer Markus Biberacher Thomas Blaschke |
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Institution: | 1. Department of Geoinformatics – Z_GIS, University of Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria;2. Research Studios Austria – Studio iSPACE, Salzburg, Austria |
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Abstract: | General backcasting as a decision support and planning method starts from desired future states and simulates developments backwards until reaching the present state. Development pathways that reveal steps to be taken to reach a certain future state, and milestones that serve as interim goals, are created during the process. Backcasting has hitherto only been applied in workshops or as a theoretical framework and no spatially explicit backcasting model has previously been established. This paper presents the development of a spatially explicit backcasting model. The proposed model first creates a future scenario utilizing an agent-based model and then simulates backwards. It is implemented using the programming language Python. The model has been applied to a case study for sustainable land-use planning in Salzburg, Austria. The results of the model run show a successful backcasting of land-use classes from a future state back to the present, in 10 year time steps. |
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Keywords: | backcasting land-use planning sustainability decision support |
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