基于灰色系统理论的煤矿人因事故关键因素分析

通过对煤矿人因失误事故致因因素进行分析，统计出相关的关键影响因素，运用灰色系统关联理论，根据国家安监局近十年煤矿事故统计数据，对煤矿人因失误事故影响类型进行了分析。以煤矿事故发生起数和事故死亡人数作为参考指标，计算和分析行为失误致因、个人违章、组织管理失误等十项主要与煤矿人因事故相关的灰色关联度，进而推算出这些因素的灰色关联序，确定出导致煤矿人因失误事故的关键因素，最终得到煤矿人因事故与关键影响因素之间的定量化分析结果。采用灰色关联理论对煤矿人因失误影响因素进行分析，能够很好地说明人因失误与各关键影响因素之间的权重关系，对煤矿人因事故主致因机理有更加深刻的理解，为煤矿事故的预防和控制提供重要的参考依据。

Analysis on critical factor of human error accidents in coal mine based on gray system theory

Through analyzing the influence factors causing human error accidents in coal mine, the critical influence factors were summarized. By applying the gray system correlation theory, according to the statistical data of mine accidents in recent 10 years from the State Administration of Coal Mine Safety, the influence types of human error accidents in coal mine were analyzed. Taking the number of accidents and death toll of accidents as reference index, the gray correlation degree about 10 kinds of factors mainly related to human error accident in coal mine, such as behavior error, personal violation, organization and management error and so on, were calculated and analyzed. The gray correlation orders of these factors were derived, and the critical influence factors of human error accident in coal mine were determined. Finally, the quantitative analysis result between the critical influence factors and human error accidents in coal mine were obtained. Using gray correlation theory to analyze the influence factors of human error in coal mine can well explain the weight relationship between human error and each critical affecting factor. It provides a strong reference for pretending and controlling the human error accident in coal mine, with more understanding on the main causing mechanism of human error accidents.