生活垃圾焚烧飞灰水洗盐产生量预测及其对资源可持续利用的影响分析

针对水泥窑协同处置飞灰水洗预处理过程中水洗盐产生量不清，资源化利用潜力不明晰的问题，采用情景分析方法预测水洗盐产生量，评估其资源利用潜力。首先采用改进的灰色马尔科夫模型和产废系数法预测2021-2030年京津冀地区飞灰产生量；然后选择水泥窑协同处置比、厨余垃圾分拣率和塑料垃圾分拣率3个参数，利用组合情景预测协同处置和生活垃圾分类对水洗盐产生的影响。
结果显示，到2030年，水洗盐产生量为9.2×10⁴~16.5×10⁴ t；在实现“十四五”时期飞灰资源化和生活垃圾分类发展要求的情景下，水洗盐产生量为12.7×10⁴ t，比低发展水平情景提高28.7%。提高垃圾分拣率，推进高效、低耗能分盐技术发展，可以降低水洗盐处理压力并提高氯化钾自给率，支持水洗盐资源可持续利用。

Prediction and implications of washing salt generation from municipal solid waste incineration fly ash for sustainable resource utilization

To address the problem of the unclear amount and potential of resource utilization of washing salt produced in washing pretreatment of fly ash in cement kiln collaborative disposal, a scenario analysis method is used to predict the amount of washing salt and assess its potential for resource utilization. Firstly, the improved grey Markov model and waste production coefficient method are used to predict fly ash production in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2021 to 2030; then, 3 parameters are selected: cement kiln collaborative disposal ratio, kitchen waste sorting rate, and plastic waste sorting rate, and the combination scenario analysis is used to analyze the impact of combined disposal and municipal solid waste sorting on washing salt production. The results show that by 2030, the amount of washing salt will be 9.2×104~16.
5×104 t; under the scenario of achieving the development requirements of fly ash utilization and municipal solid waste sorting in the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, the amount of washing salt will be 12.7×104 t, which is 28.7% higher than that of low development level scenario. Improving the waste sorting rate, and promoting the development of efficient and low-energy consumption salt separation technology, can reduce the pressure of washing salt treatment and increase the self-sufficiency rate of potassium chloride, supporting the sustainable utilization of washing salt resources.