富营养化水体水华暴发的突变模型

 对南方某水库1991～2004年水质数据进行了系统分析,综合考虑TP、N:P、Chla和DO4个对该水库富营养化乃至水华影响较大的因子,构建了该水库水华突变的尖点模型.经检验,模型的相对误差控制<5%,具有较好的拟合精度.根据模型的突变判别,水库的水生态系统在1997年发生了突变,这一模拟结论与TP指标的突变判别结论相印证,并与该水库1997年首度暴发水华的实际情况相一致.

The catastrophic model of water bloom breaking out of eutrophication waters

Facing the serious situation of lakes and reservoirs, the prevention and control of algae water bloom was an urgent matter; while the effective premonition of the water bloom based on the eutrophication status quo was the important basic work of preventing and controlling the water bloom. The systemic analysis of the water quality data of certain south reservoir in the years 1991~2004 found that the evolution rule of the April TP and Chla indexes at the reservoir bend monitor section fitted cusp model characteristics of catastrophe theory. As viewed from the aquatic ecosystem, TP, N:P, Chla and DO, four most outstanding factors influencing the eutrophication and water bloom of this reservoir, were synthetically considered; the cusp model of water bloom catastrophe of this reservoir was constructed. Through test the relative error of the model was controlled less than 5% possessing better modeling precision. Based on distinguishing the model catastrophe, the aquatic ecosystem of the reservoir happened catastrophe in the year 1997, this simulating conclusion echoed with the catastrophe distinguishing conclusion of TP index, judged that the first outbreak of water bloom would happen in 1997 in the reservoir. The conclusion was consistent with the fact of water bloom breaking out for the first time in 1997 in the reservoir.