考虑人员伤亡的高校宿舍火灾风险评估方法研究*

为提高高校宿舍楼火灾应急疏散效率，以某高校宿舍楼为例，建立可用疏散时间（ASET）概率密度函数的三角分布模型，并利用FDS软件进行火灾模拟，得到函数中各参数值;运用Pathfinder软件对人员疏散进行模拟，得到火灾未疏散人数与时间的函数;通过对上述2个函数的乘积进行积分，得到不同火灾场景下的伤亡人数。结果表明:影响火灾临界时间的主要因素是火灾能见度和烟气层温度；宿舍楼中部火灾发展速度快于两侧；人员性别、意识状态及火灾探测报警情况对疏散时间和效率影响程度不同。研究结果可为应急疏散及宿舍楼人员预期火灾风险评估提供依据。

Study on fire risk assessment method of college dormitory considering personnel casualties

In order to improve the fire emergency evacuation efficiency of college dormitory buildings,taking a college dormitory building as an example,a triangulation distribution model of probability density function for the available safe evacuation time(ASET)was established,and the FDS software was used to simulate the fire of dormitory building,and the values of each parameter in the function were obtained.The Pathfinder software was used to simulate the personnel evacuation of the dormitory building,and the function of the number of personnel that were not evacuated and the time of fire was obtained.By integrating the product of the above two functions,the numbers of casualties under different fire scenes were obtained.The results showed that the main factors affecting the critical time of fire were the fire visibility and the temperature of smoke layer.The fire development speed in the middle of the dormitory building was faster than those on the two sides.The gender of personnel,the state of consciousness and the situation of fire detection and alarm had different degrees of influence on the evacuation time and efficiency.The results can provide basis for the emergency evacuation and the fire risk assessment of dormitory personnel.