组织因素对飞行员不安全行为的干预策略研究

为了对飞行员的不安全行为进行科学有效的管理，挖掘组织因素带来的深层影响，防止因飞行员不安全行为造成的不安全事件发生，运用系统动力学方法，构建组织因素对飞行员不安全行为的干预策略模型。以S航空公司为研究对象，通过调节组织因素中的飞行技术训练力度和奖惩力度等变量，制定不同的干预策略，运用VENSIM软件模拟不同干预策略的干预结果。研究结果表明:飞行员不安全行为的最佳干预策略组合为安全记录考核奖励程度、副驾驶转正/机长升职力度、监管力度、罚款力度、飞行技术训练强度的组合，到2020年实现不安全行为数量平均降低26%，在2020年改变干预策略数值，到2030年实现不安全行为数量平均降低54%。

Study on intervention strategies of organizational factors on unsafe behavior of pilots

In order to scientifically and effectively manage the unsafe behavior of pilots, explore the deep influence of organizational factors, and prevent the occurrence of unsafe incidents due to unsafe behavior of pilots, a model on the intervention strategies of organizational factors on the unsafe behavior of pilots was constructed by using the method of system dynamics (SD). Taking the S Airlines as the research object, different intervention strategies were formulated by adjusting the variables of organizational factors such as the efforts of flight technology training, and the efforts of reward and punishment. The intervention results of different intervention strategies were simulated by using VENSIM software. The results showed that the best combination of intervention strategies for the unsafe behavior of pilots was the combination of safety record assessment and reward degree, the co pilot becoming captain/captain promotion efforts, supervision efforts, penalty efforts, and flight technology training intensity. By 2020, the number of unsafe behavior will be reduced by 26% on average, then the numbers of intervention strategies will be changed in 2020, and the number of unsafe behavior will be reduced by 54% on average by 2030.