| 情景驱动的区域自然灾害风险分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵思健,黄崇福,郭树军.情景驱动的区域自然灾害风险分析[J].自然灾害学报,2012(1):9-17. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵思健 黄崇福 郭树军 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国农业科学院农业信息研究所农业部智能化农业预警技术重点开放实验室;北京师范大学民政部/教育部应急与减灾管理研究院;河北省气象科学研究所河北省所象与生态环境重点实验室 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家高技术研究发展计划“863”项目(2009AA12Z124);国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(40901274) |
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| 摘 要： | 随着近年来自然灾害发生频次的增加与巨灾效应的不断涌现,人们对自然灾害风险分析提出了更高的要求与期望。然而,由于人们对"风险"认识的不全面与不系统,导致了灾害风险分析理论与技术水平的停滞不前。"风险是与某种不利事件有关的一种未来情景"是我们对"风险"的诠释。据该定义可知,风险不仅仅只是着眼于过去,更重要的是要展望未来;风险不再只是历史灾难的统计,而是未来不利事件情景的分析。因此,"情景分析"成为风险研究的一项新手段,它不仅摒弃了传统方法仅着眼"过去"的局限性而实现从"过去"到"现在"到"未来"合理过渡的研究思路,而且摒弃了传统方法仅限于因子统计分析的局限性而实现系统分析的研究理念。以"情景分析"为技术手段,提出了情景驱动的区域自然灾害风险分析方法,旨在探讨对风险研究思路与技术的创新。
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| 关 键 词： | 区域自然灾害 风险分析 情景分析 洪涝 |
Scenario-driven risk analysis of regional natural disasters |
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| ZHAO Sijian,HUANG Chongfu,GUO Shujun.Scenario-driven risk analysis of regional natural disasters[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2012(1):9-17. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Sijian HUANG Chongfu GUO Shujun |
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| Institution: | 1.Agricultural Information Institute of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences;Key Laboratory of Digital Agricultural Early-warning Technology,MOA,Beijing 100081,China;2.Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management,Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;3.Hebei Provincial Key Lab for Meteorology and Eco-Environment,Hebei Provincial Institute of Meteorological Science,Shijiazhuang 050021,China) |
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| Abstract: | Risk analysis of regional natural disasters,such as flood,typhoon and earthquake,have increasingly become core subjects of natural disaster researches in recent years.However,there is still slow progress in the theory and methodology of risk analysis of regional natural disasters due to our incomplete and unsystematic knowledge of risk concept.’Risk is a set of scenarios in the future associated with some adverse incidents’ was our scientific definition to risk.From this definition,it can be seen that risk analysis is not just to investigate the past but more importantly is to take a look at the future,i.e.to carry out the scenario analysis of future possible adverse incidents.Thus,in this paper,a new method,scene-driven risk analysis method was developed to be applied in the risk analysis of regional natural disasters. |
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| Keywords: | regional natural disaster risk analysis scenario analysis flood and water-logging |
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