基于Bow-tie模型的城镇输油管道风险评价方法研

根据近年来不断发生的城镇输油管道泄漏爆炸事故，提出将Bow-tie模型引入到风险评价中，将Bow-tie模型和改进的层次分析法相结合得出各影响因素的权重并排序，对管道进行风险评价，便于提出合理的安全管理方案，减少事故的发生。通过计算得到第三方因素在管道失效影响因素中占主导，而在事故后果分析中安全后果和环境后果因素影响较大，基本符合事故实际状况，说明该方法对于城镇输油管道风险分析有一定的指导意义和实用价值。

Study on risk assessment method of urban oil pipeline based on Bow-tie model

According to the leakage and explosion accidents of urban oil pipeline frequently occurred in recent years, it was proposed to introduce Bow-tie model into risk evaluation. Through the combination of Bow-tie model with the improved analytic hierarchy process method, the weights of each influence factor were obtained and sorted. Then the risk evaluation was conducted on pipeline so as to put forward reasonable safety management schemes and reduce the occurrence of accidents. The calculation results showed that the third party factor dominates in the influence factors of pipeline failure, while in the analysis of accident consequence, the safety consequence and environment consequence factors have the largest influence, which basically accord with the actual situation of accident. It has certain guiding significance and practical value for the risk analysis of urban oil pipeline.