航空装备研制风险的综合赋权-双基点法评估

为实现对航空预研项目技术风险的定量评估,建立技术风险评价指标体系,建立基于综合赋权和双基点方法的综合评估模型,采用层次分析法(AHP)求得主观权重,熵值赋权法求得客观权重,运用线性规划方法求得对2类权重加权的权值,构造综合权重;使用正负理想点间的投影距离代替传统的相对欧式距离对TOPSIS方法进行改进;实例分析中,通过对某航空预研项目5种不同的方案进行风险评估,得出各方案的优劣度,选出了较为优化的技术方案,该方法可用于指导其他装备研制风险的评估。

Risk Assessment of Aviation Equipment Development Based on Combination Weighting and Double Base Points Method

In order to quantitatively evaluate the technical risk in the development of aviation equipment,a risk evaluation index system and comprehensive risk evaluation model was established based on combination weighting and double base points method.In this model,the subjective weight was calculated by AHP,and the objective weight was calculated by entropy-weighted method.The weight coefficients for the two kinds of weights were calculated by linear programming method,by which the combination weight was gained.Meanwhile,TOPSIS method was improved by using projection distance between double base points to substitute traditional opposite continental distance.In example analysis,the established model was used to evaluate the technical risk of five different development schemes for aviation equipment;the risk of each scheme was gained,and the best scheme was chosen.This method can also be used to the risk assessment of other equipment development.