基于模糊Petri网的交通事故致因建模分析

针对目前我国道路交通事故多发的现状,以模糊Petri网为工具,以对道路交通安全有重大影响的关键因素为基础,模拟给出其因果关系,建立了基于模糊Petri网的道路交通事故致因分析模型,设计最长路径算法分析模型中某个致因要素导致交通事故发生的可信度。最长路径上的致因要素即为最易引起交通事故的主要因素。案例分析表明,这个模型能够体现各因素之间的逻辑关系,达到了通过数量指标分析道路交通事故主要原因的目的。

Modeling and Analyzing on Road Traffic Accident Causation Based on Fuzzy Petri Net

In view of the serious situation of road traffic accidents in China,and on the basis of Petri net and some critical factors easily causing accident,an accident causation analysis model based on fuzzy Petri net is constructed after analyzing the causality of the given factors.The longest path algorithm is presented to find the credibility of traffic accident when a proposition of a causation factor is true.The causation factor in the longest path is the key factor that can lead to traffic accident most easily.Finally,a case study demonstrates that the logical relations of all the factors can be reflected through the given model,and the desired effect of analyzing the major factor of road traffic accident by quantity index can be achieved.