人因可靠性数据库基础架构研究

针对人因可靠性分析中的数据匮乏问题,在技能-规则-知识(SRK)模型的基础上建立层次化的人因可靠性数据分类体系,其中包括人因失误模式和人因失误影响因素。结合对一些实际人因失误数据的考察,以及可控实验,确定人因可靠性数据库中基准人因失误概率。在人因数据外推系统中,使用层次分析法(AHP)来定量评价人因失误所处的情境的等级,并使用概率方法将基准人因失误概率与情境进行叠加,从而得到人因失误概率。人因数据库有助于人因可靠性数据的搜集和分析,形式化的外推方法减少了对主观因素的依赖。

Study on Basic Construction of Human Reliability Database

In order to solve the problem of lack of data in human reliability analysis,a hierarchical human reliability data classification was developed based on SRK(skill,rule and knowledge) model,which includes a classification of human error modes and a classification of performance shape factors.Then,base human error probability was determined according to some practical human error data and some experimental data.In the extrapolation system,AHP was used to quantify the level of context;furthermore,base human error probability and context were combined to obtain human error probability by using probability method.A human reliability database is useful for data collecting and data analysis,and formal extrapolation method reduces the dependence on subjective factors.