市级国土空间规划核心指标纵向传导研究——以湖南省常德市为例

核心指标纵向层级传导作为市级国土空间规划的关键内容，对市域国土空间格局优化及规划统筹具有重要意义。针对当前指标传导研究不充分、不精细等问题，遵循“核心传导指标选择→指标传导技术逻辑构建→情景模拟预测”的研究思路，以常德市为例研究其2035年国土空间规划“市→县（区）”的核心指标传导。结果表明：（1）基于“指标全域总量预测—指标空间布局模拟—指标分区分类传导”的传导技术逻辑，通过SD与GeoSOS-FLUS模型的耦合集成利用，可有效实现市级国土空间规划核心指标“自上而下”与“自下而上”相结合的科学传导。（2）构建“人—地—业”协调的常德市国土空间利用SD模型，预测获得2035年市域核心指标总量，相应国土利用综合效益达12994.25亿元，相比2018年提升207.75%。（3）从指标传导结果来看，2035年常德市各县（市、区）社会经济类指标除常住人口规模指标外均保持增长趋势，边界类指标实现“只增不减”，用地类指标变化各异，但总体契合常德市主体功能区建设方向，核心指标传导结果符合实际。

Longitudinal transmission of core indicators of municipal territory spatial planning: A case study of Changde city,Hunan province

As a key content of the city-level territory spatial planning system, the vertical hierarchical transmission of core indicators is of great significance to the optimization of the municipal territory spatial utilization pattern and the overall planning. Considering the inadequate and imprecise research of current index transmission, following the research idea of "core transmission index selection→logical index transmission technology construction→ multi-scenario simulation prediction", this paper takes Changde city as an example to study its core indicators transmission of territory spatial planning in 2035 "City→ District (County)" conduction. The results show that: (1) Based on the technical transmission logic of "indicators global total prediction-spatial layout simulation-regional classification transmission", through the comprehensive utilization of SD and GeoSOS-FLUS model, the core indicators of city-level territory spatial planning can be transmitted effectively and scientifically by combining "top-down" and "bottom-up" processing. (2) The SD model of "human-land-industry" coordination of land space utilization in Changde was constructed to obtain the total number of core indicators for territory spatial planning of this city in 2035, and the corresponding comprehensive benefits of territorial utilization will reach 1299.425 billion yuan, an increase of 207.75% compared with 2018. (3) From the indicators transmission results, the social and economic indicators of each county (county-level city, district) of Changde will maintain an overall growth trend except for the size of permanent residents in 2035. The boundary indicators will achieve "only increase but not decrease". The changes in land use indicators vary, but they are generally in line with the main body of Changde. The direction of the construction of the functional area, and the core indicator transmission results are in line with reality.