碳中和目标下中国省域碳平衡能力与城镇化的关系

厘清碳平衡能力与城镇化的关系对实现碳中和目标和推动新型城镇化发展具有重要的理论价值及实践意义。采用温室气体清单法、碳吸收清查法、碳平衡指标法和多元城镇化测量法分别测算1999—2018年中国省域碳平衡能力与各类城镇化指标，利用空间自然断点分级法和Granger因果检验法分别分析中国省域碳平衡能力与城镇化的时空演变特征及互动关系。主要结论如下：（1）中国碳排放不断增多，碳吸收不断减少，碳平衡能力呈上升、下降、先减后增和先增后减四种趋势，碳排放呈“东多西少”分布，碳吸收与碳平衡能力分别呈“西多东少”和“西强东弱”分布。（2）中国人口、经济、空间、生态城镇化和城镇化综合指标不断提升，其中空间城镇化大致呈“西高东低”分布，其余则呈“东高西低”分布。（3）除空间城镇化外，中国整体碳平衡能力与各类城镇化的关系均为反馈型，而各省域增长保护型数量最多，中立型数量最少。

The relationship between China's provincial carbon balance capacity and urbanization under carbon neutrality target

It has great theoretical value and practical significance to clarify the relationship between carbon balance capacity and urbanization for realizing the carbon neutrality target and the development of new urbanization. The greenhouse gas inventory method, carbon absorption inventory method, carbon balance index method and multiple urbanization measurement method were used to calculate the carbon balance capacity and urbanization indicators of various types of China's provincial-level regions from 1999 to 2018 respectively. The spatial natural breakpoint classification method and Granger causality test were used to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution and interaction between China's provincial carbon balance capacity and urbanization. Furthermore, the development paths of new urbanization in different types of regions were discussed. Main conclusions are as follows: Firstly, China's provincial carbon emissions continue to increase, carbon absorption continue to decline and carbon balance capacity showed four trends, namely, increasing, decreasing, decreasing first and then increasing, and increasing first and then decreasing. The spatial distribution of carbon emissions presented a pattern of "more in the east and less in the west", and the spatial distributions of carbon absorption and carbon balance capacity were "more in the west and less in the east" and "stronger in the west and weaker in the east", respectively. Secondly, the population, economy, space, ecological urbanization and urbanization comprehensive indexes of China's provinces were increasing continuously. In addition, the spatial urbanization showed a pattern of "high in the west and low in the east", while the other types of urbanization showed "high in the east and low in the west" distribution. Thirdly, except for spatial urbanization, the relationship between carbon balance capacity and various types of urbanization was feedback type, and the provincial growth and protection type was the most, followed by the reduction and destruction type, and the neutral type was the least. The development path of China's new urbanization can be divided into four types: growth and protection type, destruction and reduction type, feedback type and neutral type. Improving regional carbon balance capacity and enhancing the development path of new urbanization had important theoretical and practical significance for realizing regional sustainable development targets. Regional differences in population, economic, social and ecological development had an influence on the realization of "dual carbon" and new urbanization goals. Therefore, in designing carbon reduction action plans, regional differences should be considered to identify carbon reduction levels and adopt differentiated measures to form carbon reduction networks.