中国代表性滑雪场网络关注度时空演变及影响因素

基于百度指数数据,运用指数测度、空间地理分析、回归模型和地理探测器,对2011—2019年中国大陆26个代表性滑雪场网络关注度的时空演变特征及影响因素进行分析。结果表明：（1）时间演化上,网络关注度呈先增后减且逐渐平稳的规律。2015年、2016年为峰值年份,季节性差异明显,共两个波动峰值且为“南北为单,中东为双”的分布格局。（2）空间特性上,全国和地区均为先增后减特征,地区差异显著;变异程度先降后增并趋于稳定,全国分布相对稳定平衡,地区分布呈不稳定集聚特性。省区冷热区域分布总体呈“东北热—西南冷”格局,层级变化以稳定型为主。（3）滑雪场层面上,滑雪场总体偏好层级变动较大,高偏好保持稳定领先,其余层级以下降变动为主。滑雪场冷热点分级呈“北热南冷”的格局,东北、华北两个热点集聚区域演变较为稳定。（4）影响因素上,需求侧影响因素排序为滑雪消费吸引力>受教育程度>经济发展水平>信息化水平>滑雪场建设水平。供给侧的滑雪人次占比、滑雪经济贡献、客运承载力、冰雪旅游资源丰度、官方媒体建设水平解释力较强,其他因素影响并不显著。

Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of network attention of representative ski resorts in China

Based on the Baidu index data, the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the 26 representative ski resorts in the Chinese mainland were analyzed by using index measurement, spatial geographical analysis, regression model and geographic detector in 2011-2019. The results show that: (1) In terms of temporal evolution, the network attention first increased and then decreased, and gradually stabilized. 2015 and 2016 are the peak years, with obvious seasonal differences. There are two fluctuation peaks, and the distribution pattern is "single peak in the north and south, and double peaks in the middle and east". (2) In terms of spatial characteristics, the national and regional characteristics were first increasing and then decreasing, and the regional differences were significant. The degree of variation first decreased and then increased, and tended to be stable. The national distribution was relatively stable and balanced, and the regional distribution showed the characteristics of unstable agglomeration. The overall distribution of cold and hot spots at the provincial level showed a pattern of "hot in the northeast, but cold in the southwest", and the hierarchical change was mainly stable. (3) As for ski resort, the overall preference level changed greatly, the high preference remained stable and leading, and the other levels mainly changed downward. The classification of cold and hot spots in ski resorts showed a pattern of "hot in the north and cold in the south", and the evolution of the two hot spots in Northeast and North China was relatively stable. (4) In terms of influencing factors, the order of demand side is ski consumption attraction > education background > economic development level > informatization level > ski resort construction level. The proportion of ski trips, ski economic contribution, passenger carrying capacity, abundance of ice and snow tourism resources and the construction level of official media on the supply side have strong explanatory power, and the influence of other factors is not significant.