面向碳中和的中国自然资源安全保障与实现策略

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情和世界地缘政治经济格局变化，对中国实现碳中和战略目标与保障自然资源安全产生了重大影响。如何把实现碳中和目标与保障资源安全目标结合起来，从碳中和的技术逻辑和自然资源领域的实践逻辑视角，分析提出中国自然资源安全保障路径及其实现策略，具有重要的现实意义和理论价值。从自然资源对国民经济社会发展的重要支撑作用和当前自然资源利用与保护实践出发，系统分析了碳中和的相关问题和自然资源领域实现碳中和的主要路径。研究表明：当前国内外对碳排放的认识不仅存在量化指标不确定性，而且还有很多其他的误区，中国面向2030年和2060年多个发展目标，需要统筹各种能源与资源的合理利用，自然资源领域实现碳中和必须遵循自身的技术逻辑与实践逻辑，厘清碳中和行动之间各种边界，加强自然资源学的基础理论与方法研究，揭示碳达峰和碳中和（3060目标）与能源和资源关联耦合机理，研究制定化石能源退出路径和其他利用策略，研发和推广提升资源与能源利用效率的适用技术，探索林草、湿地、土地利用和碳封存实现增汇的潜力与实施路径，研究山水林田湖草沙与自然资源系统治理新模式，开展面向碳中和战略目标的自然资源安全战略研究、模拟预警、动态评估、方法创新与应用示范。建议实施包括化石能源双控行动、再生能源勘查行动、资源利用提效行动、关键矿产增储行动、耕地保护修复行动、林草扩绿保育行动、湿地修复保护行动、陆海统筹协调行动、资源管理智能行动、人才技术创新行动等十大重点战略计划。

Study on security guarantee and implementation strategy of China's natural resources towards carbon neutrality

The Covid-19 lasting for years and the geopolitical and economic changes around the world have a significant impact on China's carbon neutral strategy and the protection of natural resources in the near term and future. How to combine the goals of realizing carbon neutrality and ensuring natural resource security, and put forward the security and realization strategy of natural resources from the perspective of the technical logic of carbon neutrality and the practical logic in the field of natural resources, has important practical significance and theoretical value for China. Starting from the important supporting role of natural resources in national economic and social development along with the analysis of the current practice of natural resource utilization and protection, this paper systematically reviewed some related problems of carbon neutrality and main paths to realize carbon neutrality in the field of natural resources. The author believes that the current understanding of carbon emissions has not only the uncertainty of quantitative indicators, but many other misunderstandings as well. Facing the multi-dimensions of development goals towards the years of 2030 and 2060, China needs to coordinate the rational utilization of various energy and natural resources. In order to achieve carbon neutrality in the field of natural resources, China should adhere to its own technical and practical logics, clarifying various boundaries between carbon neutrality actions, and strengthening the research on the basic theories and methods of natural resources, revealing the coupling mechanism between carbon peak and carbon neutrality (2060 goals) and energy and resources, studying and formulating the seceding path and other utilization strategies of fossil energy, enhancing applicable technologies to improve the efficiency of resource and energy utilization, exploring the potential and implementation path of carbon sink increase through forest and grass, wetland, land use and carbon sequestration, and developing the new model of systematic governance of mountains, rivers, forests, lakes, grass, sand, ice and natural resources, carrying out strategic research, simulation and early warning, dynamic assessment, method innovation and application demonstration of natural resource security oriented to the strategic goal of carbon neutrality. The author also proposes ten key strategic plans to be implemented immediately, including the action of dual control of fossil energy, the action of renewable energy exploration, the action of resource utilization and efficiency improvement, the action of increasing storage of key minerals, the action of farmland protection and restoration, the action of forest and grass expansion and conservation, the action of wetland restoration and protection, the action of land and sea coordination, the action of resource management intelligence, and the action of talent and technology innovation.