云南省环境库兹涅茨特征研究

根据云南省1985~2003年历年环境污染指标的统计数据和历年人均GDP统计数据,对人均GDP与环境污染(工业"三废"排放量)作相关分析,建立两者之间的计量模型,并在此基础上分析工业"三废"排放量与人均GDP增长的关系。经研究发现,云南省经济增长与环境污染基本符合环境库兹涅茨曲线,人均GDP与工业废水排放量曲线和人均GDP与工业固体废弃物排放量曲线均已处于倒U型曲线的右半段,并随人均GDP的增长而呈下降趋势,曲线走势良好;人均GDP与工业废气排放量曲线则处于倒U型曲线的左半段,且尚未达到转折点,随着经济的增长,工业废气排放量将呈上升趋势。但从总体而言,云南省工业环境状况总体上呈逐步好转趋势。

Study on EKC Characteristics in Yunnan Province

Basing the statistics data from 1985 to 2003 of Yunnan province,this paper analyzed the correlation between per capita GDP and environment pollution(industrial "three wastes") and established the quadratic model,and analyzed the relationship between industrial "three wastes" and the growth of per capita GDP.Through research,we find the relationship between environment pollution and economic growths are similar to the invert U curve.The cure of industrial water discharge and industrial solid waste discharge in relation to per capita GDP have already been on the right of the invert U curve.Along with per capita GDP growth,industrial water discharge and industrial solid waste discharge present decline tendency,and the curve is going to positive tendency;The curve of industrial waste gas discharge in relation to per capita GDP have been on the left of the invert U curve,and have not got to turning point.Along with the growth of economy,industrial waste gas discharge will present rise tendency.All in all,the whole industrial environment state is going to positive tendency in Yunnan province.