基于替代模型的煤矸石堆地下水污染随机模拟

为分析参数的不确定性对地下水污染质运移数值模拟模型输出结果的影响，以抚顺西舍场煤矸石堆及周边地区为研究对象，以硫酸根离子为模拟因子建立污染质运移的数值模拟模型，运用灵敏度分析法筛选对模拟模型影响较大的参数作为随机变量；为减少反复调用模拟模型产生的计算负荷，运用克里格方法建立污染质运移模拟模型的替代模型，利用替代模型完成蒙特卡洛随机模拟；最后，对随机模拟的输出结果进行统计分析，利用污染质浓度分布函数估算单井遭受污染的风险.结果表明，井1，井2和井3中达到地下水质量标准的Ⅲ类标准的概率分别为0.6%，97.6%和0%，藉此为地下水污染防治提供更加科学，丰富的参考依据.

Stochastic simulation of groundwater pollution in coal gangue reactor based on alternative model

In order to analyze the influence of parameter uncertainly on the numerical model of groundwater pollution, aimed at making a research on Fushun Xishechang and the surrounding area, this paper firstly established a groundwater solute transport numerical simulation model by taking sulfate ion as the simulation factor. For the purpose of reducing computation load, the sensitivity analysis method was used to select the more sensitive parameters as random variables. Then, the paper constructed the Kriging surrogate model of the simulation model, that was used to finish the Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, the output results of the stochastic simulation are statistically analyzed, that was used to construct the pollutant concentration distribution function to estimate the pollution risk of single well. The probability of well 1,2 and 3 that meet the Ⅲ grade of the groundwater quality standard were 0.6%, 97.6% and 0%, respectively, which can provide a more scientific and comprehensive reference for groundwater pollution prevention and control.