新疆拖拉机污染物排放时间序列及其影响因素

基于燃油消耗建立了新疆1993~2017年农田作业拖拉机PM₁₀，PM_2.5，HC，NO_x和CO排放时间序列清单，并分析了其演变趋势.从经济发展水平，拖拉机自身的影响和科学技术3个维度出发构建了以柴油机为主要动力的拖拉机污染物排放影响因素清单，并基于粗糙集理论定量分析了污染物排放影响因素.结果表明：1993~2017年新疆拖拉机污染物排放总量处于上升趋势，25a增长了2.0527倍，年均增长率3.67%，单位功率排放量下降了40.03%.农业机械排放标准的提高对污染物排放治理的作用明显.对污染物排放影响因素的定量分析结果显示，总动力、拖拉机数量、机耕面积、机播面积、机收面积、农业机械购置投入、农户固定资产投入和单位功率排放量对污染物排放的影响程度分别为0.2591，0.2491，0.0841，0.0759，0.0934，0.0568，0.0701，0.0701.经济发展水平、拖拉机自身的影响和科学技术对拖拉机污染物影响程度分别为：0.6350，0.2530和0.1119.建立的排放清单和变化趋势较好的反映新疆农业机械污染物排放现状，所得出的结果较好的反映了新疆社会经济，农业机械化和科技水平对拖拉机污染物排放的影响程度.

Impact factor of pollutant emission time series from farmland tractors in Xinjiang

As the farmland tractors (FT) have dramatically increased in Xinjiang autonomous region of China in the past decades, FT emissions have become one of the major air pollution sources across the entire region. The emission time series inventories of PM₁₀, PM_2.5, HC, NO_x and CO for FT in Xinjiang from 1993 to 2017 were established based on fuel consumption, and the evolution trends of these air pollutants were also analyzed. The list of impact factors of FT's emission mainly from diesel engines was constructed with the consideration of three aspects:economic development levels, FT's own attributes, and the scientific and technological development. Based on the rough set theory, a quantitative analysis of factors affecting pollutants' emission was also performed. The results showed that the total emission of all pollutants of FTs in Xinjiang had increased by more than 2times in recent 25 years from 1993 to 2017 with the annual growth rate of 3.67%, and the emission per ten thousand kilowatt had decreased by nearly 40.03%. It suggested that the emission standards for FTs proposed in recent years may played a substantial role. Second, the quantitative analysis of the impacting factors of pollution showed that the total FT power, the number of FTs, the area of ploughing, the area of sowing, the area of harvesting, the investment of agricultural machinery, the investment of fixed assets by farmers, and the emission per 10thousand kilowatt all had affected the emission with impacting factors of 0.2591, 0.2491, 0.0841, 0.0759, 0.0934, 0.0568, 0.0701, 0.0701, respectively. The affecting factors of economic development level, FT own attributes, and the science and technology on FT pollutants were 0.6350, 0.2530 and 0.1119, respectively. Third, the established mission inventory and the evolution trend can well reflect the status of pollutants emission from the agricultural machinery sector in Xinjiang. The results accurately reflected the influence of Xinjiang's social economic development, agricultural mechanization and scientific and technological progress on FT's pollutant emission.