转型期中国物质生产能源消费与CO2排放关联特征

论文利用计量经济模型,就近30 a来我国物质生产过程中能源消费与CO₂排放变动关联特征进行研究,结果表明:①物质生产部门能源消费的持续增长是我国能源消费总量增长与CO₂排放量增长的主要驱动因子;②物质生产部门的产业能源消费结构均衡度长期以来处于较低水平,呈现"低水平不平衡-平衡-较高水平不平衡"的变化规律;③物质生产部门能源消费-GDP脱钩弹性系数分布情况与物质生产部门CO₂排放-GDP脱钩弹性系数分布情况相似,均表明目前我国物质生产对能源消费的依赖度趋低,单位能源消费的经济产出量逐渐提高,但我国物质生产部门的经济产出与能源消费的弱脱钩关系相较于发达国家的强脱钩关系之间仍存在较大差距。最后,论文针对研究结论,从物质生产部门行业结构、能源消费结构、经济增长与能源消费间脱钩关系三个角度,提出调控未来物质生产部门能源消费的建议要点。

Characteristics of Variable Association between Energy Consumption and CO_2 Emissions in Material Production Sector during the Period of Economic Transition

This paper,applying econometrics model method,makes an analysis on variable association between energy consumption and CO2 emissions in material production process in the recent 30 years in China.The result indicates that: 1) The growth of energy consumption of material production departments and the rising movement of CO2 emissions are affected predominantly by the energy consumption in material production process;2) the energy consumption equilibrium in material production sector has been at a low level,e...