耦合InVEST与GeoSOS-FLUS模型的桂林市碳储量可持续发展研究

为了量化桂林市碳储量并快速评估分级保护措施对区域碳储功能的影响,耦合InVEST模型碳储存模块和GeoSOS-FLUS模型,并基于土地利用数据和不同情景未来土地预测结果,对2000~2040年桂林市域范围六区十一县市内的碳储时空特征进行分析.结果表明:桂林市2000年、2010年和2020年的总碳储量分别为554.02×10⁶t,553.58×10⁶t,550.21×10⁶t,呈现“逐年下降”的变化态势.同时,受人类活动和土地利用类型变化的影响,桂林市域各区县的碳储水平存在较大的时空差异,碳储量整体表现为“西北、西南及东部较高,东北、东南及中部较低”的空间分布特征.将桂林市碳储量高值区确定为碳储资源的优先保护区域,与自然变化情景相比,资源保护情景下桂林市林地得到有效保护,建设用地规模扩大受到限制.采取资源保护措施后,桂林市2040年总碳储量达到552.16×10⁶t,较2020年增加了1.95×10⁶t,中低密度碳储区所占比例明显下降,区域固碳能力大大增强.该研究结果可为桂林市国家可持续发展示范城市建设提供指导,也可为碳储资源精准保护和土地利用管理决策提供科学参考.

Study on sustainable development of carbon storage in Guilin coupled with InVEST and GeoSOS-FLUS model

In order to quantify the carbon storage of Guilin and quickly evaluate the impact of hierarchical conservation measures on regional carbon storage function, this study coupled carbon storage module of InVEST model and GeoSOS-FLUS model. Based on land use data and future land prediction results of different scenarios, the spatio-temporal characteristics of carbon storage in Guilin from 2000 to 2040 were analyzed. The results showed that the total carbon storage of Guilin in 2000, 2010 and 2020 was 554.02×10⁶t, 553.58×10⁶t and 550.21×10⁶t respectively, showing a trend of "decreasing year by year". At the same time, affected by human activities and land use type change, the carbon storage level of each district and county in Guilin had a great spatial and temporal difference. The overall carbon storage was higher in northwest, southwest and east, and lower in northeast, southeast and central parts of Guilin. The high-value carbon storage area in Guilin was determined as the priority area for carbon storage resource protection. Compared with the natural change scenario, the forest land in Guilin was effectively protected under the resource conservation scenario, and the expansion of construction land was restricted. After taking resource protection measures, the total carbon storage of Guilin reaches 552.16×10⁶t in 2040, an increase of 1.95×10⁶t compared with 2020. The proportion of medium and low density carbon storage area decreases significantly, and the regional carbon sequestration capacity is greatly enhanced. The research results can provide guidance for the construction of national sustainable development demonstration city in Guilin, and also provide scientific reference for precise protection of carbon storage resources and land use management decisions.