江汉平原血吸虫病耕牛感染率时空异质性分析

终宿主耕牛是血吸虫病最重要的传染源之一。将2008～2012年江汉平原10个主要血吸虫病流行县（市）的村级家畜疫情资料空间可视化，运用时空扫描统计、Local Moran’s I及多水平模型，系统地分析村级血吸虫病耕牛感染率的时空分布格局及在其各类流行区间的分布差异及变化规律。结果显示：历年血吸虫病耕牛疫情高风险集聚区主要位于四湖地区，尤以位于湖沼洲垸（垸内）流行区的沙市区、江陵县、公安县和潜江市及位于湖沼洲摊（垸外）流行区的石首市为重；高值聚类村分布范围随时间总体逐渐缩小且疫情高风险显著聚集时间为2008～2009年；行政村耕牛感染率总体平均随时间呈显著线性降低趋势（年份 = -0.58，P < 0.000 1）；山丘丘陵亚型、湖沼洲垸亚型以及湖沼洲滩亚型3种类型流行区行政村的平均耕牛感染率后者显著高于前者（流行区类型= -0.3，P < 0.001）。同样，随着时间的推移，湖沼洲滩亚型地区行政村的耕牛感染率平均减小幅度最大，其次是湖沼洲垸亚型地区，再次是山丘丘陵亚型地区（年份*流行区类型= -0.07，P < 0.01）。江汉平原血吸虫病重点流行县（市）耕牛感染率具有显著的时空异质性，其特征可为采取分类指导、因地制宜的防治策略与措施提供依据。

Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity in Cattle Schistosomiasis Japonicum Infection at Village Level in Jianghan Plain,China

The Cattle is one of the important middle hosts of schistosomiasis in China.In this study,the infected cattle data of ten counties in Jianghan Plain(Hubei Province,China) were geospatially visualized between 2008 and 2012,the micro-geographical distribution and the temporal heterogeneity of those infected cattle were also analyzed for schistosomiasis control strategies design.The results showed the high-risk cluster areas of infected cattle mainly distributed in the Four-Lakes Region,which particularly included the inside embankment areas in the countyies of Shashi,Jiangling,Gong'an and Qianjiang and the outside embankment areas of city of Shishou.The cattle infected high risk period is 2008 and 2009,and the cattle infected areas also decreased later after 2009.The cattle infected ratios (infected individuals in all cattle) decreased significantly with time increasing between 2008 and 2012.The cattle infected areas can be divided into three types:inside embankment areas,outside embankment areas and hilly areas.Multi-level model results showed the area types and yearly variations could significantly affect the cattle infected ratios(type =-0.3,P ＜ 0.001;year * type=-0.07,P ＜ 0.01).The cattle infected ratios were highest in inside embankment areas,middle in outside embankment areas,and lowest in hilly areas.This study showed the cattle infected ratios in this region had significantly spatiotemporal heterogeneity,and those characteristics can be used in the schistosomiasis control strategies design.