湖北省县域人口迁入与工业集聚的空间关联性研究

基于2000年和2010年湖北省102个县级行政区的规模以上工业总产值和县际迁入人口数据,采用空间自相关分析方法,探讨工业经济和迁入人口的空间格局及变化,以及两者之间的空间关联性;采用面板数据拟合联立方程模型,实证检验人口迁入与工业集聚之间的互动机制。结果表明：湖北省迁入人口和规模以上工业的县际分布之间存在显著的空间正向关联性,武汉市及其邻近县区一直是迁入人口和工业经济的高高集聚区,鄂西地域则是低低集聚区。人口迁入与工业集聚之间存在相互决定的互动关系,地区工业集聚度提高1%,其全部迁入人口和省内迁入人口分别增加 0.544 9% 和 0.602 3%;全部迁入人口或省内迁入人口增加1%,其工业集聚度则分别提高 0.294 0% 和 0.267 8%。社会经济发展水平相对落后的中西部省区应通过推进人口和非农产业协同集聚,培育地区经济增长极,促进地区经济增长和区域协调发展。关键词： 人口迁入;工业集聚;空间关联性;互动关系;湖北省

Interactive Relationship between Population Mobility and Industrial Agglomeration: Based on County Panel Data of Hubei Province

Based on a dataset consisting of Gross Output Value of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size and inter-county immigrants of 102 counties in 2000 and 2010,the spatial patterns of industries and immigrants in Hubei province are analyzed by univariate spatial correlation model firstly.Then,the spatial correlation between the inter-county distribution of industries and immigrants is measured by bivariate spatial autocorrelation model.Finally,the interaction between population immigration and industrial agglomeration is investigated based on the Panel Data Simultaneous Equations Model.The main results are as follows.(1) The inter-county distributions of immigrants and industries in Hubei province are spatially correlated positively.The bivariate LISA cluster maps indicate that the High-High type clusters distribute in the areas consisting of Wuhan city and its neighboring counties,and the Low-Low type clusters distribute in the western areas.(2) The interaction between population immigration and industrial agglomeration is significant.Ceteris paribus,if the degree of industrial agglomeration increased by 1 percent,the amount of overall inter-county immigrants and intra-provincial inter-county immigrants would increase by 0.544 9 percent and 0.602 3 percent respectively.In the other hand,if the amount of overall inter-county immigrants or intra-provincial inter-county immigrants increased by 1 percent,the degree of industrial agglomeration would increase by 0.294 percent or 0.267 8 percent correspondingly.(3) The provinces that characterized by relatively lower level of socio-economic development in the central and western China should promote the co-agglomerations between population and non-agricultural industries to foster growth pole.So that the objectives of regional economic growth and inter-regional coordinated development might be attained.