水质感知视角下水库移民满意度分析——基于有序逻辑回归的实证研究

针对库区移民的水质满意度问题，应用有序逻辑回归分析方法，基于满意度感知理论，构建了库区移民水质感知有序逻辑回归模型，以浯溪口水利枢纽工程移民情况开展实证研究。研究结果表明：（1）最高教育水平、水源、庄稼种类、日常污水去向、周期性淹没意向等要素对移民水质感知具有显著影响；（2） 上游移民相较于中下游移民对于未来水质政策更乐观；（3）随着教育水平提高，移民对未来预期更加理性；（4） 日常污水去向要素对移民的水质感知存在空间异质影响，使用明渠的群众更倾向于认为水质将会变好；（5） 移民生活用水来源获取越难，对水质变化感知越差；（6）种植主粮作物的移民，对未来的水质预期更好。推动农业供给侧结构性改革，推进农业种植结构优化，能够提升移民满意度

Analysis of Immigrants' Satisfaction Degree in Water Quality——Empirical Research of Ordinal Logistic Regression

Focus on the problem of water quality satisfaction of reservoir immigrants, this paper applies the method of orderly logistic regression analysis to construct an orderly logistic regression model of water quality perception of reservoir area based on the theory of satisfaction perception, and carries out an empirical study on the resettlement of WUXIKOU Water control Project. The results show: ① The factors such as the highest education level, water source, crop type, daily sewage destination and cyclical inundation intention have significant influence on the water quality perception of immigrants. ② Upstream immigrants are more optimistic about the future water quality policies than immigrants from the middle and lower reaches. ③ As education improves, immigrants are more rational about their future expectations. ④ There is a spatial heterogeneity in the perception of water quality of immigrants by the factors that affect the daily water intake, and people using open channels tend to think that water quality will be better. ⑤ The more difficult it is for the sources of domestic water for immigrants to acquire, the worse their perception of water quality changes. ⑥ Immigrants planting staple crops are expected to have better water quality in the future. Promote Structural Reform of Agricultural Supply side, Promote Optimization of Agricultural Planting Structure and Improve Immigration Satisfaction