泛长三角人口流动网络及其特征研究

作为中国人口流动最活跃的泛长三角地区，其人口流动特征与规律无疑具有典型代表性。基于2015年全国流动人口动态监测数据和2015年春运百度迁徙数据，引入复杂网络分析中的度、中心度、聚类系数和平均路径长度等概念模型，运用GIS网络分析以及Gephi网络数据可视化处理分析软件对泛长三角人口流动复杂网络进行分析。研究发现：（1）兼有小世界性和无标度性特征的泛长三角人口流动复杂网络已经形成。（2）该网络具有明显的层级特征，形成了以上海、苏州、杭州、南京为中心的“一主三副”多核心网络。上海、苏南、以及浙东北地区网络联系较强、关联程度较高；浙西南和皖北地区网络联系较强，但关联程度较低；苏北、苏中、皖中以及皖南地区网络联系较弱、关联程度较低。（3）在研究区域内，流入人口呈现“Z”形和“M”形空间分布。上海市始终是人口“净”流入状态，江苏省人口流入以区域内流动为主，浙江省以省外流入为主，安徽省是人口净流出大省。研究一方面有助于归纳总结发达地区人口流动特征、丰富人口迁移的有关理论，另一方面也为科学判断泛长三角人口流动趋势、实现人口有序流动、促进区域可持续健康发展提供理论借鉴

A Study on Population Flow Network and Its Characteristics in Pan-Yangtze River Delta

The College of Geography and Tourism,Anhui Normal University,Wuhu 241002,China As the most active Yangtze river delta region in China,the characteristics and rules of population flow are undoubtedly representative. Based on the dynamic data of mobile population in 2015 and the data of Baidu migration in 2015,the conceptual model of degree,center degree,clustering coefficient and average path length in complex network analysis is introduced. The GIS-network analysis and Gephi network data visualization analysis software were used to analyze the complex network of population movement in Pan-Yangtze River Delta. Research shows that: (1) The complex network of the Pan-Yangtze River Delta population with"small world effect"and"scale-free features"has been formed. (2) the network has obvious level characteristics,formed in Shanghai, Suzhou,Hangzhou,Nanjing as the center of the "one main three"multi-core network. Shanghai,southern Jiangsu,and northeastern Zhejiang,and the degree of association is relatively high. The network in the southwest of Anhui and northern Anhui is strong,but the degree of association is low. The population movement network of northern and central Jiangsu,central and southern Anhui is weak,the degree of association is low. (3) Inflow population is"Z"and"M"type space distribution pattern in Pan -Yangtze River Delta. Shanghai is always the population"net"inflow state,Jiangsu Province,the flow of population into the region-based,Zhejiang Province, the main flow into the province,Anhui Province is a net population outflow of the province. On the one hand,the study is helpful to summarize the characteristics of population mobility in developed areas and enrich the theory of population migration. On the other hand,it also provides theoretical reference for scientifically judging the trend of population movement in the Pan-Yangtze River Delta and realizing the orderly flow of population to promote regional sustainable and healthy development.