长三角城市群城市创新产出的空间集聚及其溢出效应

基于2005～2014年空间面板数据，运用空间计量经济学方法，对长三角城市群26个城市创新产出的空间集聚及空间溢出效应进行了实证研究。结果表明：（1）长三角城市群城市创新产出呈现显著的空间正相关，空间集聚特征明显，总体上形成了以上海为核心，以南京、杭州、宁波、合肥等城市为重要创新节点，由沿海向内陆发散的空间集聚格局。（2）长三角城市群城市创新产出在地理空间上具有显著的正向空间溢出效应，邻近城市创新产出的提高，将促进本城市创新能力的增强。（3）空间效应对城市群城市创新产出的作用显著，忽视空间要素对城市群创新产出的影响，将使估计结果产生偏差。（4）各创新要素对城市群城市创新产出的影响存在差异，人力资本、资金投入水平和创新平台不仅能提高本城市和邻近城市的创新水平，而且对城市群的创新发展具有显著的促进作用；经济发展水平和对外交流学习能力对本城市创新产出的正向作用显著，对邻近城市具有明显的负向溢出效应，而对城市群创新产出的作用并不显著；政府支持力度对本城市创新产出具有促进作用，对邻近城市创新产出作用不显著，对城市群创新产出的促进作用较弱。最后提出了提升长三角城市群城市创新发展水平的政策建议和未来的研究方向。

Spatial Agglomeration of City Innovation and Its Spillover Effects in Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

Based on the spatial panel data from 2005 to 2014,taking 26 cities of Yangtze River Delta as the research unit,adopt the Global Moran's Ⅰ and Moran scatter plot to test and analyze the spatial autocorrelation and cluster characteristics of city innovation output in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration,and build the Standard panel model and Spatial econometric model to make positive researches on the effects and mechanism of spillover effects of city innovation output in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration.The results show that:1) The city innovation output of Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration shows a significant positive spatial autocorrelation and an obvious spatial agglomeration characteristics,formed an agglomeration pattern which takes Shanghai as the core and takes Hangzhou,Nanjing,Hefei and Ningbo as important fulcrums,and this pattern diffused from coastal areas to the inland.2) The city innovation output of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration has a significant positive spatial spillover effect in the geographical space,the increase of innovation output in neighboring cities will promote the innovation capability of the city.3) The spatial effect has a significant effect on urban agglomeration and innovation output,ignoring the influences of spatial effect on the city innovation output will lead to the deviation of the estimation result.4) The innovation elements have different effects on the urban agglomeration city innovation output,human capital,investment level and innovation platform can not only improve the innovation level of the city and the neighboring city,but also have significant effect on the innovation and development of city group;The level of economic development and foreign exchange ability of the learning have an obviously positive effect on the city innovation output,but have an obviously negative spillover effects on neighboring city,and have not significant effect on the city group of innovation output;Government support has a promoting effect on the city innovation output,no significant effect on the adjacent city of innovation output,weak effect on the city group innovation output.Finally,the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to improve the urban innovation and development level of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration and the directions in the future research.