京津冀地区道路碳排放量的演变及空间分布

以机动车碳排放模型为基础,结合不同类型机动车存活曲线,建立分车龄的车队构成,并利用年均行驶里程和燃油消耗量,分析了京津冀地区2005～2020年道路碳排放量的演变及区域分布特征.结果显示,河北省道路碳排放量增长迅速,近5a仍以7.14%的年均增长率快速增长,而北京和天津两市的道路碳排放已经进入低速增长期,近5a的年均增长率分别仅为1.01%和2.27%.小型客车一直都是道路碳排放的主力车型,其碳排放量占京津冀道路碳排放总量50%以上;轻型货车在北京市道路碳排放中的贡献越来越突出,而河北和天津两地轻型和重型货车正在逐渐发展为道路碳排放增长的主要驱动因素.从京津冀道路碳排放的4km×4km网格分布图可知,因北京和天津拥有更密集的道路,其碳排放强度远高于河北省.

Evolution and spatial distribution of road carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Based on the carbon emission model of "motor vehicles", the evolution and regional distribution characteristics of road carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2005 to 2020 were analysed by using the average annual mileage and fuel consumption of different types of motor vehicles. And a fleet of vehicles with different ages was established using the survival curves of different types of motor vehicles. The results showed that the road carbon emissions of Hebei were growing rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of 7.14% in the past five years, while the road carbon emissions of Beijing and Tianjin have entered a period of slow growth, the average annual growth rate of road carbon emissions in the past five years were only 1.01% and 2.27% respectively. Cars was the main vehicle type of road carbon emissions, whose carbon emissions accounted for more than 50% of the total emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The contribution of the light duty trucks to road carbon emissions in Beijing road was becoming more and more prominent, while the light and heavy duty trucks in Hebei and Tianjin were gradually emerging as the main driving factor for the growth of road carbon emissions. According to the 4km×4km grid distribution of road carbon emission in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the carbon emission intensity in Beijing and Tianjin was much higher than that in Hebei Province due to much denser roads.