山区农民泥石流灾害风险感知和可接受风险研究

基于泥石流灾害可接受风险调查问卷的分析，从泥石流灾害关注程度和类型、可接受性及灾害可接受风险3个方面阐述农民对泥石流灾害可接受风险的感知和态度。研究结果表明：(1)农民普遍关注泥石流灾害，主要关注的灾害后果是财产损失，财产损失中主要关注的是房屋；(2)农民对泥石流灾害可接受性分别是：距离为<5 km、频次为100年1次或更长时间1次、预警时间为<1 h和保险费用为<100元；(3)农民可接受的受灾人数、死亡人数、死亡比例、个人直接经济损失和总直接经济损失分别为≤100人、≤1人、≤5×10^-7/a、≤1 000元和≤10万元；(4)影响农民对泥石流灾害风险感知和风险态度以及可接受风险水平的主要人口特征是36～45岁、女性、受教育程度初中学历以及收入<1 000元/月的群体。

Study on Risk Perception and Acceptable Risk of Debris Flow Disaster for Mountainous Farmers

Based on the analysis of a questionnaire on acceptable risk of debris flow disaster, this article expounds the farmers’ risk perception and risk attitude to the acceptable risk of debris flow disaster from three aspects: attention degree and type, disaster acceptability and acceptable risk. The results show that:(1) Farmers are generally concerned about the debris flow disaster, the main concern of disaster consequence is property loss, and the further main concern of property loss is housing.(2) The farmers’ acceptability of debris flow disasters are mainly: the distance is < 5 km, the frequency is once a century or longer time, the warning-time is < 1 h and the insurance-premium is < 100 CNY.(3) The acceptable disaster-affected toll, death toll, death rate, personal direct economic losses and total direct economic losses are mainly ≤100 persons, ≤1 person, ≤5×10^-7/a, ≤1 000 CNY and ≤1×10⁵ CNY respectively.(4) The demographic characteristics affecting farmers’ risk perception, risk attitude and acceptable risk level of debris flow disasters are 36~45 years old, female, educational level of junior middle school and incomes <1 000 CNY/month.