Design-based estimators and power analyses of trend tests for the proportion of fish that exhibit gross pathological disorders

Methods for estimating the proportion of fish that exhibit gross pathological disorders and for estimating the variance of these estimates are defined. The methods are for the situation in which a probability-based sampling design is used to collect fish for examination, but geographic locations (rather than individual fish) are assigned probabilities of being selected for sampling. To illustrate the use of the methods, they are applied to data collected during the 1992 EMAP- Estuaries sampling program in the Louisianian Province (i.e., the Gulf of Mexico). Separate estimates of the proportion of fish with gross pathological disorders are computed for demersal species, commercial species, pelagic species, and all species as one group. In addition, a test for trend in the proportion of fish that exhibit gross pathological disorders is defined, and analyses of the power of the test are presented. The power analyses are based on a general underlying model of the random distribution patterns of fish and the random process of catching fish. The power analyses also take into account the features of the sampling designs used for collecting fish. Component parameter estimates were computed using data from the 1992 EMAP-Estuaries sampling program in the Louisianian Province. Results from these analyses suggest that the EMAP-Estuaries sampling designs are capable of detecting a 0.15% change per year in the proportion of fish (all species groups combined) with gross pathological disorders in estuaries of the Louisianian Province over a 12-year period with a power of at least 80%. © Rapid Science 1998