流域人类活动对鄱阳湖生态安全演变的驱动

分析了20世纪80年代到2008年鄱阳湖生态安全演变趋势及其阶段性特征,深入研究了流域人类活动与鄱阳湖生态安全之间的相关性及鄱阳湖生态安全演变的主要驱动因素. 结果表明,鄱阳湖生态安全状况经历了3个演变阶段,总体呈下降趋势:①其中20世纪80—90年代为快速下降阶段,由很安全状态下降为安全状态；流域社会经济不合理的发展模式,尤其是20世纪50—80年代大规模围垦等人类不合理开发活动,导致该阶段鄱阳湖生态安全状况快速下降. ②20世纪90年代到2002年为缓慢下降阶段,总体处于“安全”水平；伴随着1992年鄱阳湖被列入国际重要湿地以及1998年“退田还湖、移民建镇”等保护措施的实施,使该阶段鄱阳湖生态安全状况下降速度有所减缓. ③2003—2008年为反弹下滑期,总体已接近“一般安全”水平；随着2003年三峡工程试运行以来,鄱阳湖与长江江湖关系发生了较大变化,这一阶段鄱阳湖流域进入了新的发展阶段,致使其生态安全状况进一步下降. 流域社会经济不合理发展模式是鄱阳湖生态安全状况下降的重要原因,对鄱阳湖的过度无序利用直接驱动了其生态安全状况的恶化,湖区人口增长与其生态安全状况下降之间有着很好的相关性,维护鄱阳湖生态系统处于“安全”以上水平,湖区人口密度应控制在350人/km2以内. 按照保护优先的思路,坚持人湖和谐的流域可持续发展模式是保障鄱阳湖生态安全的关键. 

Ecological Security Evolvement in Poyang Lake Influenced by Basin Human Activity

The trend of the ecological security evolvement and the staged characteristics of Poyang Lake from 1980s to 2008was investigated, and the correlation between human activity and ecological security of Poyang Lake Basin, as well as the main factors influencing the lake's ecological security evolvement were explored deeply. The results indicated that the ecological security of Poyang Lake generally exhibited a declining trend, and had experienced three stages. A period with a rapid decline occurred from 1980s to 1990s, which was in the “very safe” state to the “safe” state. Due to the unreasonable mode of socio-economic development, especially since the large scale inning from 1950s to 1980s, the ecological security state rapidly declined during this period. A slow decline stage from 1990to 2002was in a “safe” state. After Poyang Lake was registered in the list of the key international wetlands in 1992and the application of “restoring lakes by stopping cultivation, population relocation” in 1998, the declining trend of the ecological security state slowed down. A period of the rebound stage was from 2003to 2008, which was close to the level of “general safety”. In 2003, the application of “Three Gorges Project” significantly changed the relationship between Poyang Lake and the Yangtze River. From that time, Poyang Lake Basin entered a new development stage, which resulted in the ecological security state coming into a rapid decline period. The unreasonable development model of economic and social is the important reason for the decline of the ecological security state of Poyang Lake. Over use of the resources of Poyang Lake by human directly worsens its ecological security evolution. There is a good linear correlation between the growth of population density in the region and the decline of its ecological security state of Poyang Lake. The reasonable population capacity of Poyang Lake region is 350people/km2. Therefore, the conservation priorities and the harmonious relationship betwween human and lake are the key measures for the protection of ecological security of Poyang Lake.