基于层次分析法的工业园区环境风险评价指标权重分析

针对环境风险评价的特征,从HJ/T 169—2004《建设项目环境风险评价技术导则》、GB 18218—2009《危险化学品重大危险源辨识》等现有环境风险评估技术规范和标准中直接筛选了物质危险性、主要原料最大存量与临界量、原料中有毒有害物质使用量等10项指标；结合工业园区环境风险区域性、复杂性及综合性等特征,提出了行业类别、危险废物处理处置方式、污染物排放方式和污染物排放浓度达标情况等9项指标,共计19项指标作为工业园区环境风险评价指标体系. 在我国东、中和西部地区近20个工业园区的管理者、企业及园区公众发放600份问卷,运用层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process,AHP)构建了工业园区环境风险评价指标权重递阶层次结构模型. 模型结果显示,影响工业园区环境风险等级准则层权重依次为风险源(0.4663)、监管机制(0.3010)和受体(0.2327)；累积性环境风险源特征指标中危险废物处理处置方式 (权重居第1位,下同)和污染物排放浓度达标情况(第2位)指标权重较突发性风险源特征指标——物质危险性 (第4位)、原料中有毒有害物质使用量占比 (第9位)、主要原料最大储存量与临界值(第18位)等指标排序优先；对于体现工业园区环境风险预防和监管的指标权重相对较高,如行业类别,园区环境监控情况、环境风险监管机制中日常环境管理制度中的环境监控情况 (第5位)权重也高出了环境风险制度体系中事故应急预案(第8位)指标权重；但是,在对受体关注程度上生态环境质量和安全等指标的权重仍旧很小. 

Study on Environmental Risk Assessment Index Weight of Industrial Park Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process

According to the characteristics of environmental risk assessment, 10indicators, including hazard of substance, maximum storing capacity and critical mass of main raw material, usage amount of toxic and harmful substance in raw material, are directly cited from the existing technical specifications and standards of environmental risk assessment, such as ‘Technical Guidelines for Environmental Risk Assessment on Projects’, ‘The Standard of Major Hazard Source Identification’. Additionally, combining environmental risk features of industrial park as regional, complex and integrated, 9indicators, including industry category, hazardous waste treatment and disposal method, pollutants emitting way and concentration, were complementally proposed. Total 19indicators above form the environmental risk assessment indicator system of industrial park. There were 600questionnaires issued to management departments, enterprises, and public of nearly 20industrial parks in China, and the hierarchical structure model on environmental risk assessment indicator weights of industrial park is established by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The result showed that the total interviewees believed that the weight of criterion layer are risk source(0.4663), supervision mechanism (0.3010), and receptor (0.2327) in sequence; that the weight of accumulative environmental risk source indicators (hazardous waste treatment and disposal method (1st) and research the standard of pollutants emitting concentration (2nd)) are prior to the indicators of emergency environmental risk source (hazard of substance (4th), usage amount of toxic and harmful substance in the raw material (9th), maximum storing capacity and critical mass of main raw material (18th)); and the weight of usual environmental supervision mechanism, like environmental monitoring (5th), is also higher than environmental risk coping incident response plan (8th); For the interviewees the weight of ecological and environmental quality and safety protection is not high like they should be.