我国道路交通安全发展情景分析

以日本和美国为例 ,分析了发达国家道路交通事故高发期的发展历程 ,得出了道路交通事故的上升与国家经济发展和机动化增长有着直接关系的结论。笔者通过分析和预测我国经济和道路交通的发展情景发现 ,今后我国道路交通发展特征和日本道路交通高发期的情况十分类似。如果现有交通管理体制和技术措施没有大的变化 ,我国道路交通事故死亡人数到 2 0 2 0年可能会超过 2 3万人。为此 ,国家应尽快改善道路交通管理方面所存在体制上、行政上和技术上的不足 ,防止出现笔者所预测的道路交通事故极其严重的局面。

Situation Analysis on China's Traffic Safety Development

The road traffic safety becomes more and more severe in China, and the fatalities and economic cost is world-shocking. Taking Japan and the US as the examples, the development history of road traffic safety in two countries from the 1950s to 1970s is analyzed. It is concluded that the death toll in road accidents shows evident relation with the high speed development of economy and the rapid increase of motor vehicles. Through analyzing and predicting the development situation of economy and road traffic safety in China, it is found that the traffic pattern in China will be very similar with that of Japan then. If the administration system in road traffic had not much changed, the road traffic and accident fatalities in China would exceed 230*!000 in 2020. Therefore, reconstruction of the traffic management is in urgent need and must be strengthened promptly so as to prevent the appearance of the situation of serious road traffic accidents like that of previously predicted.