Impact of climate change on Indian forests: a dynamic vegetation modeling approach |
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Authors: | Rajiv K Chaturvedi Ranjith Gopalakrishnan Mathangi Jayaraman Govindasamy Bala N V Joshi Raman Sukumar N H Ravindranath |
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Institution: | (1) Centre for Ecological Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Malleswaram, Bangalore, 560 012, India;(2) Center for Sustainable Technologies, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, 560 012, India;(3) Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, 560 012, India;(4) Divecha Center for Climate Change, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, 560 012, India;(5) Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, 560 012, India |
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Abstract: | We make an assessment of the impact of projected climate change on forest ecosystems in India. This assessment is based on
climate projections of the Regional Climate Model of the Hadley Centre (HadRM3) and the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS
for A2 and B2 scenarios. According to the model projections, 39% of forest grids are likely to undergo vegetation type change
under the A2 scenario and 34% under the B2 scenario by the end of this century. However, in many forest dominant states such
as Chattisgarh, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh up to 73%, 67% and 62% of forested grids are projected to undergo change. Net
Primary Productivity (NPP) is projected to increase by 68.8% and 51.2% under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, and soil
organic carbon (SOC) by 37.5% for A2 and 30.2% for B2 scenario. Based on the dynamic global vegetation modeling, we present
a forest vulnerability index for India which is based on the observed datasets of forest density, forest biodiversity as well
as model predicted vegetation type shift estimates for forested grids. The vulnerability index suggests that upper Himalayas,
northern and central parts of Western Ghats and parts of central India are most vulnerable to projected impacts of climate
change, while Northeastern forests are more resilient. Thus our study points to the need for developing and implementing adaptation
strategies to reduce vulnerability of forests to projected climate change. |
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