Impact of climate change at species level: a case study of teak in India |
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| Authors: | Ranjith Gopalakrishnan Mathangi Jayaraman Shilpa Swarnim Rajiv K Chaturvedi Govindasamy Bala N H Ravindranath |
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| Institution: | (1) Centre for Sustainable Technologies, Indian Institute of Science, Malleswaram, Bangalore, 560 012, India;(2) Centre for Ecological Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, 560 012, India;(3) Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, 560 012, India;(4) Divecha Centre for Climate Change, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, 560 012, India |
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| Abstract: | In this study, we model the long-term effect of climate change on commercially important teak (Tectona grandis) and its productivity in India. This modelling assessment is based on climate projections of the regional climate model of
the Hadley Center (HadRM3) and the dynamic vegetation model, IBIS. According to the model projections, 30% of teak grids in
India are vulnerable to climate change under both A2 and B2 SRES scenarios because the future climate may not be optimal for
teak at these grids. However, the net primary productivity and biomass are expected to increase because of elevated levels
of CO2. Given these directions of likely impacts, it is crucial to further investigate the climate change impacts on teak and incorporate
such findings into long-term teak plantation programs. This study also demonstrates the feasibility and limitations of assessing
the impact of projected climate change at the species level in the tropics. |
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