基于改进模型的1992—2010年中国省域生态足迹核算

生态足迹可以从生物生产角度定量评估区域社会经济发展的可持续程度。本文运用改进的生态足迹模型对我国各省级行政区1992—2010年的生态足迹进行核算及聚类和相关性分析,以衡量各区域发展的差异及相似程度和分析各省域生态足迹变化的主导因素,并根据核算结果建立了各省区市的生态足迹预测模型,进一步明确各省级行政区的生态足迹变化趋势,以期为区域社会经济发展决策提供参考和借鉴。研究结果显示：近20年来,我国各省域社会经济发展对自然资源的依赖程度及对环境的总体影响存在较大差异。生态足迹的变化可以分为3种类型,即逐渐下降型、明显上升型和基本平稳型。北京和上海的生态足迹变化属于逐渐下降型,分别受对化石燃料用地和耕地需求的减少所主导,其中北京市生态足迹与化石燃料用地的相关系数为0.96,上海市生态足迹与耕地的相关系数为0.703,这2个城市在过去20年中的社会经济发展对自然资源的依赖程度逐渐降低;以内蒙古、山西为代表的化石燃料资源较为丰富的省域生态足迹呈明显上升趋势,这些省域生态足迹的增长受区域化石燃料生产的影响较大,个别省级行政单位生态足迹与化石燃料的相关系数为1;东北三省、东南沿海地区及西部自然资源相对匮乏省区的生态足迹属于基本平稳型。

Measuring ecological footprints of Chinese provinces between 1992 and 2010 based on an improved ecological footprint model

The concept of ecological footprint can be used to assess the sustainability of regional socioeconomic development from the perspective of biological production. In this work, we used an improved ecological footprint model to measure ecological footprints of all Chinese provinces between 1992 and 2010. Then, we did clustering analysis of the measured ecological footprints to assess the similarity of provincial socioeconomic development, and we also did correlation analysis to diagnose the driving factors of the changes in ecological footprints of each province. In addition, we built predictive models of ecological footprints for each province. The predictive models of ecological footprints were expected to help governmental officials make better decisions about regional socioeconomic development. The results show that the dependence on nature resources and the environmental impacts of socioeconomic development were different among the provinces over the past 20 years （1992-2010）. The temporal trends of ecological footprints of the provinces ean be assigned into three major types： gradually decreasing, apparently increasing, and relatively stable. The temporal trends of ecological footprints of Beijing and Shanghai belong to the type of gradually decreasing. This was mainly driven by the decreasing demand of fossil fuels and cropland. For Beijing, the value of the correlation coefficient between ecological footprints and fossil fuels land was 0.96. For Shanghai, the value of the correlation coefficient between ecological footprints and cropland was 0.703. For the two large cities, the dependence on natural resources of socioeconomic development was decreasing in the study period. For the provinces with rich fossil fuel reserves, for example Inner Mongolia and Shanxi, the temporal trends of ecological footprints belong to the type of apparently increasing. The increases in ecological footprints of these provinces were mainly driven by fossil fuel production. For some of the provinces in this category, the values of the correlation coefficient between ecological footprints and fossil fuel production were one. For the provinces in Northeastern and Southeastern coastal areas of China and some of the provinces in Western China with scarce natural resources, the temporal trends of ecological footprints belong to the type of relatively stable.