河北省水资源演化分析及预测

分析了自20世纪50年代以来河北省水资源环境的演变机制,并在此基础上,采用灰色系统方法预测了河北省水资源环境的发展趋势.分析表明,受全球气候变化影响,河北省年降水量整体呈下降趋势,且人为活动对水资源系统的扰动加剧,水资源开发利用程度极高;河北省地表水和地下水水质恶化,地下水类型发生变化,矿化度和硬度升高,重碳酸型和硫酸盐型地下水面积增加,河北平原浅层地下水水位呈下降趋势.灰色预测表明,未来河北省的降水将稍有减少,地下水开采量将持续增加,进一步破坏河北省脆弱的地下水系统;农业用水将持续下降,而生活用水将持续增加;河北省地表水和地下水水质继续恶化.地下水测井超标率居高不下,地表水超Ⅴ类河长所占比例持续增加,到2010年将达到63.62%,河北平原浅层地下水水位呈下降趋势,预计2010年浅层地下水平均埋深将达到19.92 m.

Analysis of evolution and prediction of water resource environment in Hebei Province

This paper aims to present the authors' analysis of the water resource evolutional trend and study of the mechanism of the water resource system in hoping to be able to predict the future scenario by grey system theory.The results of our analysis show that,for the time being,the surface precipitation has been decreased under the global climate change.Currently,water resource system in Hebei has been disturbed by the over activity of human beings.Statistically speaking,annual exploitation quantity of the groundwater,in Hebei province only,has increased from 128.08 billion m3 in 1991 to 176.12 billion m3 in 2000,thus making the water resource development and utilization situation ever more serious.In addition,the quality of groundwater and surface water has been deteriorated since 1980,with the degree of mineralization and hardness of groundwater remarkably rising,which has brought about the phenomenon of dycarbonate-type and sulfate-type groundwater.Shallow beneath-surface water has become ever-going deepened from 1986 to 2000.The prediction of gray system shows that,the precipitation of the ground level of Hebei would have decreased in the near future to some extent.In spite of this,the exploitation quantity of groundwater would be increasing continuously,adding great pressure to the current fragile groundwater supplying system.On the other hand,water supply for agricultural irrigation would have to cut down due to the great pressure of human consumption just for living-making.Facing such a severe challenge,it would be inevitable for groundwater to increase its mineralization and hardness with the coming-up of bicarbonate-type and sulfate-type groundwater.It is no doubt that the buried depth of superficial water would get ever more deepened with time going on,which will have reached 19.92 meters by 2010 with the current annual average exploitation quantity increasing to 187.78 m3 in 2010.