生态足迹动态预测模型构建与分析

生态足迹的动态预测能够为区域可持续发展政策的制定提供科学的理论依据，但其研究仍处于探索阶段。以武汉市为例，选取表征社会经济发展的重要指标建立了社会经济系统指标体系，在对武汉市1978~2004年生态足迹时间序列计量的基础上，应用偏最小二乘算法构建了生态足迹动态预测模型，并根据〖WTBX〗VIP〖WTBZ〗值的大小分析了各指标对生态足迹的影响机制。结果表明，武汉市“十一五”规划期间生态足迹呈上升趋势，其中规划期末2010年的人均生态足迹为2810 5 hm2，高于全球生态阈值（人均生态足迹为2200 0 hm2）；根据〖WTBX〗VIP〖WTBZ〗值得出人口、能源消费量和第三产业所占比重为最重要的影响因子，并就如何实现武汉市“十一五”规划目标提出了政策性建议。将科技进步贡献率、能源消费量等重要因子纳入社会经济系统指标体系，弥补了在生态足迹定量测度中忽略社会、经济、科技因素对其影响的不足；另一方面，引入偏最小二乘算法中的〖WTBX〗VIP〖WTBZ〗值更准确地评价了各指标对生态足迹变化的影响，为生态足迹动态预测研究作了进一步地完善与改进。〖

CONSTRUCTION AND ANALYSIS OF ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT DYNAMIC PREDICTION MODEL

Dynamic prediction research on ecological footprint(EF) provides the making of strategy and policies for regional sustainable development with scientific and theoretical basis.However，it is still at an exploratory stage.In this paper，taking Wuhan City as an example，based on calculation of the long time series of EF from 1978 to 2004，an indicator system of socio economic system was established and a EF dynamic prediction model was built by using the partial least square regression(PLS).The mechanism that each indicator influences the EF was analysed by using the 〖WTBX〗VIP〖WTBZ〗 value.Results demonstrated that the EF of Wuhan City in the “11th Five Year” plan period showed an upward trend，while the EF per capita would be 2.810 5 hm2 at the end of “11th Five Year” plan period，higher than the global ecological threshold ( the EF per capita is 2.200 0 hm2).According to the 〖WTBX〗VIP〖WTBZ〗 value，the population，energy consumption and the tertiary industry were the most important factors.Recommendations on how to achieve the targets of “11th Five Year” Plan in Wuhan City were proposed.It was showed that bringing scientific progress contribution and energy consumption into the indicator system would make up for the disavantage of EF concept that ignors the social，economic，technological factors in quantitative measurement.What′s more，it was more accurate and precise to evaluate the influence of each indicator on the EF change by using the 〖WTBX〗VIP〖WTBZ〗 value.The research made further perfection and improvement on the EF dynamic prediction.〖