A prediction-based approach to modelling temporal and spatial variability of traffic-related air pollution in Montreal, Canada

Concentrations of traffic-related air pollution can be highly variable at the local scale and can have substantial seasonal variability. This study was designed to provide estimates of intra-urban concentrations of ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) in Montreal, Canada, that would be used subsequently in health studies of chronic diseases and long-term exposures to traffic-related air pollution. We measured concentrations of NO₂ at 133 locations in Montreal with passive diffusion samplers in three seasons during 2005 and 2006. We then used land use regression, a proven statistical prediction method for describing spatial patterns of air pollution, to develop separate estimates of spatial variability across the city by regressing NO₂ against available land-use variables in each of these three periods. We also developed a “pooled” model across these sampling periods to provide an estimate of an annual average. Our modelling strategy was to develop a predictive model that maximized the model R². This strategy is different from other strategies whose goal is to identify causal relationships between predictors and concentrations of NO₂.Observed concentrations of NO₂ ranged from 2.6 ppb to 31.5 ppb, with mean values of 12.6 ppb in December 2005, 14.0 ppb in May 2006, and 8.9 ppb in August 2006. The greatest variability was observed during May. Concentrations of NO₂ were highest downtown and near major highways, and they were lowest in the western part of the city. Our pooled model explained approximately 80% of the variability in concentrations of NO₂. Although there were differences in concentrations of NO₂ between the three sampling periods, we found that the spatial variability did not vary significantly across the three sampling periods and that the pooled model was representative of mean annual spatial patterns.