Global temperature change from the transport sectors: Historical development and future scenarios |
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| Authors: | Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie Jan Fuglestvedt Terje Berntsen Marianne Tronstad Lund Gunnar Myhre Kristin Rypdal |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom;2. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria;3. Department of Physics, Imperial College London, United Kingdom;4. Department of Chemical Engineering, Imperial College London, United Kingdom;5. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, United Kingdom;6. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria and Graz University of Technology, Austria;1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA;2. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA;3. CICERO, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, P.O. Box 1129, Blindern, 0318 Oslo, Norway;4. Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA;5. School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK;6. Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany;7. School of Earth Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010, Australia;8. Dalton Research Institute, Manchester Metropolitan University, UK;1. Sustainable Transport & Tourism of CSTT, NHTV Breda, University of Applied Sciences, The Netherlands;2. Department of Tourism, School of Business, University of Otago, PO Box 56, Dunedin, New Zealand;3. Faculty of Business, Economics and Law, School of Hospitality and Tourism Management, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7XH, UK;4. School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University, 391 82 Kalmar, Sweden;5. Western Norway Research Institute, 6851 Sogndal, Norway;1. School of Tourism and Hospitality Management, Southern Cross University, Australia;2. Department of Tourism, University of Otago, New Zealand |
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| Abstract: | Transport affects climate directly and indirectly through mechanisms that operate on very different timescales and cause both warming and cooling. We calculate contributions to the historical development in global mean temperature for the main transport sectors (road transport, aviation, shipping and rail) based on estimates of historical emissions and by applying knowledge about the various forcing mechanisms from detailed studies. We also calculate the development in future global mean temperature for four transport scenarios consistent with the IPCC SRES scenarios, one mitigation scenario and one sensitivity test scenario. There are large differences between the transport sectors in terms of sign and magnitude of temperature effects and with respect to the contributions from the long- and short-lived components. Since pre-industrial times, we calculate that transport in total has contributed 9% of total net man-made warming in the year 2000. The dominating contributor to warming is CO2, followed by tropospheric O3. By sector, road transport is the largest contributor; 11% of the warming in 2000 is due to this sector. Likewise, aviation has contributed 4% and rail ～1%. Shipping, on the other hand, has caused a net cooling up to year 2000, with a contribution of ?7%, due to the effects of SO2 and NOx emissions. The total net contribution from the transport sectors to total man-made warming is ～15% in 2050, and reaches 20% in 2100 in the A1 and B1 scenarios. For all scenarios and throughout the century, road transport is the dominating contributor to warming. Due to the anticipated reduction in sulphur content of fuels, the net effect of shipping changes from cooling to warming by the end of the century. Significant uncertainties are related to the estimates of historical and future net warming mainly due to cirrus, contrails and aerosol effects, as well as uncertainty in climate sensitivity. |
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