Wind modeling of Chihuahuan Desert dust outbreaks

The Chihuahuan Desert region of North America is a significant source of mineral aerosols in the Western Hemisphere, and Chihuahuan Desert dust storms frequently impact the Paso del Norte (El Paso, USA/Ciudad Juarez, Mexico) metropolitan area. A statistical analysis of HYSPLIT back trajectory residence times evaluated airflow into El Paso on all days and on days with synoptic (non-convective) dust events in 2001–2005. The incremental probability—a measure of the areas most likely to have been traversed by air masses arriving at El Paso during dusty days—was only strongly positively associated with the region west–southwest of the city, a zone of known dust source areas. Focused case studies were made of major dust events on 15 April and 15 December 2003. Trajectories approached the surface and MM5 (NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model) wind speeds increased at locations consistent with dust sources observed in satellite imagery on those dates. Back trajectory and model analyses suggested that surface cyclones adjacent to the Chihuahuan Desert were associated with the extreme dust events, consistent with previous studies of dust storms in the Southern High Plains to the northeast. The recognition of these meteorological patterns serves as a forecast aid for prediction of dust events likely to impact the Paso del Norte.