杭州湾南岸滩涂湿地多年蓝碳分析及情景预测

选取2003年、2017年杭州湾南岸遥感数据,利用ENVI软件和ArcGIS进行空间校正和图像处理,获得海岸带湿地数据,基于InVEST模型研究杭州湾南岸15年间滩涂湿地蓝碳及其价值的变化.结果显示:(1)2003~2017年总碳储存量和单位面积碳储量最大值均呈上升趋势,总碳储存量由0.223亿t上升到0.765亿t,增加0.542亿t.单位面积碳储量最大值也由451.27t/hm²上升到1775.42t/hm²,湿地碳汇潜力增加.(2)2003~2017年研究区域无碳损失,总体表现为碳积累,蓝碳总量为0.543亿t,单位面积净碳固定最大值为1324.12t/hm².(3)2003~2017年15年间杭州湾南岸海岸蓝碳总价值为4761.3亿元,单位面积蓝碳最大值为148.8万元,具有十分可观的生态价值.(4)滩涂蓝碳的储量同植被类型关系密切,研究区域芦苇作为优势种类,在提高本区域固碳能力中作用最大.(5)在预设的退塘还湿情景下,预测至2030年研究区固碳量和蓝碳价值增加明显.

Analysis and scenario prediction of multi - year blue carbon in intertidal wetland on the south bank of Hangzhou Bay

his study was based on the remote sensing images of the south bank of Hangzhou Bay. We used ENVI and ArcGIS for spatial correction and processing of these images and obtained the coastal wetland datasets. InVEST model was performed to analyze the change of blue carbon of intertidal wetland and its evaluation during the past 15 years on the south bank of Hangzhou Bay. The results showed that (1) From 2003 to 2017, there were escalating trends for total carbon storage and maximum carbon storage per unit area, the total carbon storage increased from 22 million tons to 76 million tons, and the net carbon storage increased by 54.3 million tons. The maximum carbon storage per unit area increased from 451.27t/hm² to 1775.42t/hm². As a whole, the potential of wetland carbon sink was increased on the south bank of Hangzhou Bay. (2) From 2003 to 2017, there was no carbon lass, and the overall performance was carbon accumulation on the south bank of Hangzhou Bay. The total amount of blue carbon was 54 million tons, and the maximum net carbon fixation per unit area was 1324.12t/hm². (3) From 2003 to 2017, the total value of blue carbon was 476.13 billion yuan on the south bank of Hangzhou Bay, and the maximum value of blue carbon per unit area was 1.488 million yuan, which was a considerable ecological value. (4) As the storage of blue carbon in the intertidal is closely related to the vegetation type, Phragmites australis plays the most prominent role in improving the carbon sequestration capacity because it’s the dominant species on the south bank of Hangzhou Bay. (5) Under the preset scenario of returning aquaculture ponds to wetlands, it is predicted that the carbon sequestration and blue carbon value will significantly increase on the south bank of Hangzhou Bay by 2030.