地铁火灾监控技术发展的德尔菲预见性分析

通过分析地铁火灾监控系统的结构组成和技术组成的发展情况,总结当前地铁火灾监控系统应用领域的各项技术,并以这些技术作为德尔菲调查问卷的内容,按照德尔菲调查的要求设计调查问卷,联络本领域资深专家进行德尔菲调查,统计专家的反馈信息,将反馈信息定量转化为计算值,计算各技术课题指标评价值,定量分析每个技术领域内技术课题影响地铁火灾监控系统发展的重要程度、各技术领域的专家认同重要程度以及技术课题预计实现时间;最终通过重要程度与专家认同重要程度计算出的综合认同重要程度,总结分析出信息处理领域、探测领域、报警和网络通信领域是制约地铁火灾监控系统发展最主要的因素,提出各技术领域的技术大部分都预计在2010-2020年之间实现,其中实现最快的是探测领域内的技术课题。

Delphi technology foresight analysis on development of the metro fire monitoring system

The development of the structures and technologies of metro fire monitoring system was analyzed and variously fields of technology which are using in the metro fire monitoning system at this present stage were summarized,and Delphi questionnaire were drawn up depend on these technologies.According to the request of Delphi survey,and then get in touch with relevance experts who had been professional and elder in the field of the request fire monitoring system to process Delphi Survey.After that,the information was converted into calculated value,and each index evaluation of all the technology was calculated,then quantitative analysis was conducted on the materiality level of technologies which influence on the wetro fire monitoring system in each field of technology,the materiality level of self-identity of experts in each fields of technology,the target data for reaching the goals of each fields of technology.Finaly,it was conduded that the fields of information processing,detecting,alarming and networking are the most immpotant factors by using the materiality level of synthetical self-identity in the development of the wetro fire monitoring system which is calculated by the materiality level and the materiality level of self-identity of experts.Most of the technologies in each fields will come true between 2010 to 2020,and the technologies in the field of detecting will come true soon.