海平面上升和土地利用驱动下红树林生境脆弱性研究

为了探索海平面上升(SLR)和土地利用导致的红树林生境潜在变化,本文以我国红树林分布最集中的雷州半岛为研究区域,基于SLAMM模型和景观生态模型建立了红树林生境脆弱性指数,设置4个SLR-土地利用组合情景(SLR4.5-土地开发利用、SLR4.5-土地自然转换、SLR8.5-土地开发利用、SLR8.5-土地自然转换),预测2050年雷州半岛红树林的生境变化和脆弱程度,并提出应对环境变化的管理策略.结果表明,(1)SLR和土地利用双重压力的叠加将造成红树林生境的显著退化,预测生境面积将减少16.59%～25.61%,减少地点集中在铁山港、安铺港、湛江港、雷州湾和流沙湾沿岸.(2)在土地自然转换情景下,尽管仍应对着海平面上升的压力,红树林潜在生境面积可增加44.66%～67.74%,增加的区域集中在岸线往内陆方向和沿水系向内陆延伸的两岸,但新增生境面临着破碎化程度高的问题.(3)在所有情景下均呈现红树林迁出现有保护区的趋势,保护区内红树林面积由5949.8hm²下降至4732.1～5192.9hm².(4)高脆弱区主要分布在雷州湾、湛江港近岸和流...

Vulnerability of mangrove habitats driven by sea level rise and land use

In order to explore the potential changes of mangrove habitats due to sea level rise (SLR) and land use, Leizhou Peninsula, which has the most concentrated mangrove distribution in China, was taken as the study area. A vulnerability index for mangrove habitats was proposed based on the SLAMM model and landscape ecological model. Four SLR-land use combination scenarios (SLR4.5-Developed, SLR4.5-Natural, SLR8.5-Developed, and SLR8.5-Natural) were set up in this study to predict the habitats changes and vulnerability habitats of mangrove in Leizhou Peninsula by 2050, and several management strategies to cope with environmental changes were proposed. The results indicated that: ①The superposition of the double pressure of SLR and land use would cause significant degradation of mangrove habitats, and the predicted habitat area would be reduced by 16.59% to 25.61%, with the reduction locations concentrated along the coast of Tieshan Bay, Anpu Bay, Zhanjiang Bay, Leizhou Bay and Liusha Bay. ②Under the natural scenarios, although still coping with the pressure of SLR, the area of potential mangrove habitats could be increased by 44.66% to 67.74%. The increased mangrove areas were concentrated along the coastal nearshore and rivers banks, but the additional habitats faced a high degree of fragmentation. ③The trend of mangrove migration to present reserves was showed in all scenarios, and the area of mangrove habitats in reserves decreased from 5949.8 to 4732.1~5192.9hm².④The high vulnerability areas were mainly located on the nearshore of Leizhou Bay, Zhanjiang Bay, Liusha Bay, etc. Under the natural scenarios, the vulnerability of additional mangrove habitats was generally high. In the future, paying attention to high-vulnerability areas and making timely dynamic adjustments to land use policies and reserve management strategies, are conducive to enhancing the resilience of mangrove habitats to cope with environmental changes such as SLR and promoting sustainable development of the region.