环境规制视角下长三角地区碳排放的时空效应

在“双碳”目标背景下，环境规制与CO₂排放的关系逐渐成为学界热点.本文基于长三角地区41城市的面板数据，利用CO₂排放系数法、环境规制强度综合指数对长三角41城市2006—2019年的CO₂排放、环境规制强度进行定量测度，通过核密度分析、GIS空间分析等方法揭示长三角地区41城市环境规制强度和CO₂排放水平的时空格局，并运用动态空间杜宾模型(DSDM)探讨环境规制对CO₂排放的时空影响效应.结果表明：(1)长三角地区环境规制强度指数呈增强态势，由2006年的0.15升至2019年的1.25.核密度曲线显示，环境规制强度存在空间极化现象，在空间上呈现由东南向西北转移的演变态势.(2)2006—2019年长三角地区CO₂排放水平整体呈波动上升趋势，2006—2013年CO₂排放增幅为65.07%,2013—2019年增幅仅为4.20%. CO₂排放在空间上总体呈东高西低的分布格局，2006年在沪苏地区形成CO

Temporal and Spatial Effects of Carbon Emissions in the Yangtze River Delta from the Perspective of Environmental Regulation

In the context of the ‘double carbon target’, the relationship between environmental regulation and carbon dioxide emissions has become an increasingly popular topic of discussion in the academic circles. Based on the panel data of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta Region, this paper demonstrated the carbon dioxide emissions and environmental regulation intensity of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta Region from 2006 to 2019 using kernel density analysis and GIS spatial analysis. The carbon dioxide emission coefficient method and the environmental regulation intensity composite index were used to show the spatial and temporal patterns of environmental regulation intensity and carbon dioxide emissions levels in 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta Region. The spatial and temporal effects of environmental regulation on carbon dioxide emissions were investigated using the Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model (DSDM). The results show: (1) There was an increase in the Yangtze River Delta Region's environmental regulation intensity index from 0.15 in 2006 to 1.25 in 2019. The kernel density curve showed that there was a spatial polarization in environmental regulation intensity, with a shift in the direction of the index from the southeast to the northwest. (2) From 2006 and 2019, the total carbon dioxide emissions in the Yangtze River Delta Region fluctuated, increasing by 65.07% from 2006 to 2013, and only 4.20% from 2013 to 2019. Carbon dioxide emissions showed a spatial distribution pattern of high in the east and low in the west, forming a high-value concentration area of carbon dioxide emissions in the Shanghai-Suzhou region in 2006, and then expanding spatially and spreading to the northwest, showing a pattern of diffusion from the central cities to the surrounding area from 2013 to 2019. (3) In terms of short-term consequences, each 1% increase in the intensity of environmental regulation decreased carbon dioxide emissions by 0.152% in the city, while the carbon dioxide emissions increased by 0.062% in nearby cities. In terms of long-term consequences, each 1% increase in the intensity of environmental regulations reduced carbon dioxide emissions by 0.254% in the city, and increased the carbon dioxide emissions in nearby cities by 0.110%. Therefore, the long-term effects of environmental regulations are stronger than their short-term effects. (4) Each city in the Yangtze River Delta should consider its own features and adopt acceptable environmental regulations and various low-carbon dioxide emission reduction strategies in order to increase the carrying capacity of resources and the environment and achieve a harmonious development of the relationship between people and land. The study showed that the overall growth rate of carbon dioxide emissions in the Yangtze River Delta slowed down, and the impact of environmental regulation intensity on carbon dioxide emissions was spatially heterogeneous.