产业转型对中国资源型城市增长与收缩演变轨迹的影响机制

中国正进入高质量发展阶段，资源型城市的增长与收缩面临着内外部条件的系统性重构，资源型城市在转型发展过程中如何摆脱“矿竭城衰”的历史宿命，实现城市人口的正增长，目前尚缺乏经验证据。本文采用2010—2020年116个资源型城市的截面与面板数据，定量刻画了资源型城市增长与收缩的演变轨迹，并实证考察了产业结构转型对人口增减变化的相关影响机制。研究发现：中国六成以上的资源型城市在研究期内表现为收缩状态，呈现出“一带两片”的空间分布格局；产业结构合理化和高级化在短期内均对资源型城市的人口增长表现为挤出效应，长期来看，产业结构合理化的影响转为正向，产业结构高级化的补偿效应暂未显现；产业结构多样化在短期内可促进资源型城市人口的增长，但长期来看并不显著。基于此，资源型城市的转型发展需要以提高产业结构合理化水平为重要突破口，以产业结构高级化为长期主线，基于地方比较优势实施产业延伸与产业更新并行战略，构建多元化的产业体系，不同类型、不同发展阶段资源型城市的产业结构转型应强调战略差异化。

The mechanisms of industrial transformation on the evolutionary trajectory of growth and shrinkage in Chinese resource-based cities

In the new high-quality development stage, the growth and shrinkage of resource-based cities face a systematic reconfiguration of internal and external conditions. There is a lack of empirical evidence on how resource-based cities can escape from the historical fate of "exhaustion of mines and decline of cities" and achieve positive urban population growth in the process of transformation and development. This paper uses cross-sectional and panel data of 116 resource-based cities from 2010 to 2020 to quantitatively characterize their trajectory of growth and shrinkage, and empirically investigate the influence mechanism of industrial structure transformation on population growth and decline. The study finds that more than 60% of resource-based cities in China were shrinking during the study period, showing a geographical distribution pattern of "one belt and two areas". The rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure both show crowding-out effects on the population growth of resource-based cities in the short term, and in the long term, the effect of industrial structure rationalization turns positive, while the compensating effect of industrial structure upgrading is not yet apparent. In the long run, the impact of industrial structure rationalization turns positive, while the compensating effect of industrial structure upgrading has not yet appeared. The diversity of industrial structure can promote the population growth of resource-based cities in the short term, but this effect is not significant in the long term. Based on those findings, the transformation and development of resource-based cities need to improve the level of industrial structure rationalization as an important breakthrough, take industrial structure upgrading as a long-term main line, implement parallel strategies of industrial extension and industrial renewal based on local comparative advantages, and build a diversified industrial system. The industrial structure transformation of resource-based cities of different types and development stages should emphasize strategic differentiation.