基于复杂网络的内河船舶碰撞事故致因分析*

为了探明内河船舶碰撞事故致因内在联系，基于船舶碰撞事故调查报告，从人-机-环-管视角构建事故致因复杂网络模型。运用“2-4”模型从人-机-环-管视角识别和提取事故致因，采用事故树方法分析调查报告中碰撞事故过程，提取内河船舶碰撞事故致因链，利用复杂网络理论融合多事故致因链，构建包括36个节点、123条边在内的事故致因网络，计算致因网络拓扑特征参数，定量分析内河船舶碰撞事故致因之间相互作用。研究结果表明:疏忽瞭望、错误估计碰撞危险、安全管理不到位、船员不适任、船与船通信信息不足、未及时行动是内河船舶碰撞事故的关键致因。同时，内河船舶碰撞致因网络是1个无标度网络，且具有小世界特性，表明事故致因之间连锁效应明显，管控上述关键致因可有效预防碰撞事故。研究结果可为预防内河船舶碰撞事故、提高内河航运管理水平提供参考。

Cause analysis of inland river ship collision accident based on complex network

In order to explore the internal relationbetween the causes of inland river ship collision,based on the investigation reports ofship collision accidents,a complex network model of accident causes was constructed from the perspective of human-machine-environment-management.Firstly,a “2-4” model was used to identify and extract the accident causes from the perspective of human-machine-environment-management.Secondly,the accident tree method was used to analyze the collision accident process in the investigation report,and the cause chain of inland ship collision accidentswas extracted.Then,the complex network theory was used to integrate multiple accident cause chains,and an accident cause network including 36 nodes and 123 edges was constructed.Finally,thetopology characteristic parameters of cause network were calculated to quantitatively analyze the interaction between the causes of inland river ship collision accidents.The resultsshowed that the negligence in lookout,misestimate of collision hazards,inadequate safety management,crewineligibility,insufficient ship-to-ship communication,and failure to act in a timely manner were the key causes of inland river ship collision accidents.Meanwhile,thecause network ofinland river shipcollision was a scale-free network,and had the characteristics of a small world,which indicated that the chain effect between the accident causes was obvious,and regulating the above key causes could effectively prevent the collision accidents.The research can provide a reference for preventing the inland river ship collision accidents and improving the management level of inland river navigation.