海域要素投入对海水养殖业发展影响的实证分析

在海域资源稀缺性日益凸显的背景下，科学评价海域要素投入对海水养殖业发展的影响，对于优化海洋空间资源配置、推动海水养殖业持续健康发展具有重要意义。本文基于C-D生产函数测算固定资本、劳动力和海域等要素的贡献率，并进一步构建PVAR模型和脉冲响应函数，探讨各投入要素之间的动态影响关系。研究结果显示：（1）长期来看，海水养殖业中资本、劳动力和海域要素投入的平均贡献率分别为20.0%、10.1%、14.9%;(2)在海水养殖业发展的困难时期或转型时期，海域要素投入均在海水养殖产量增长中发挥了重要作用；（3）海水养殖业发展具有较强的累积效应，且有着较高的劳动力和海域要素投入需求；（4）海域要素投入的波动对海水养殖产量变动的影响在前两年内最为明显；（5）劳动力要素投入对海域要素投入存在长期促进作用，资本要素投入对海域要素投入存在短期微弱抑制、长期显著促进的作用。

An empirical analysis of the impact of the supply of marine factor input on the development of marine aquaculture

In the context of increasing scarcity of marine resources, scientific evaluation of the impact of marine factor input supply on the development of marine aquaculture is of great significance for guiding the allocation of marine resources. To this end, fixed capital, labor and marine resources was taken as input factors in the development of mariculture to construct a factor contribution rate calculation model based on the C-D production function. On this basis, the dynamic interactions between various input elements were further explored, using the dynamic panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model and impulse response function. The results show that: (1) In the long run, the average contribution rates of capital, labor, and marine factor are 20.0%, 10.1%, 14.9%, respectively; (2) In the difficult period of marine aquaculture, or in the critical period of transformation and upgrading, marine factor plays a more critical role in the growth of marine aquaculture production; (3) The development of marine aquaculture applies to a strong cumulative effect, and marine factor plays a more critical role; (4) Marine aquaculture production is obviously affected by fluctuation of marine factor, but this effect is short-term, most significant in the first two years; (5) Labor factor has a long-term promotion effect on the marine factor, while capital factor has a short-term weak restraint and long-term significant promotion effect on the marine factor. The flourish of marine aquaculture industry can drive the increase of marine input in the long term.