海外石油工程公共安全风险预警方法研究

近年来，我国海外石油工程项目蓬勃发展的同时，面临公共安全极大挑战。现阶段我国石油企业的公共安全风险管理体系不尽完善，此方面的研究重点主要集中在应急救援等领域，为了及时应对复杂多变的公共安全风险，开展公共安全风险预警研究有着重要的现实意义。综合考虑现阶段海外石油工程项目面临的公共安全风险现状，从社会安定、自然灾害、公共卫生、事故灾难和综合管理五个方面系统分析其存在的公共安全风险，借助层次分析法和模糊综合评判，建立并计算公共安全风险预警指标体系的标准权重，确定预警评判集，最终提出一种海外石油工程公共安全风险预警方法，并给出应用步骤。将该风险预警方法运用到非洲某国，结果显示，与实际高度吻合，具有实际应用价值。

Study on the early warning method for security risk in overseas petroleum projects

In recent decades , more and more overseas petroleum projects are obtained and executed by our petrole-um giants, who confront kinds of security challenges in different countries and districts , because of so much insta-bilities in both politic situation and society .As a result of uncomplete management systems for security risks , and most researchers emphasize on others aspects such as emergency rescues , so that, in order to deal with the complex and multivariate security risk , assure the safeties of both people and assets , and protect the interests in abroad , the paper chooses the early warning of the overseas security risks as the research target , which has an enormous reality meaning.Firstly, according to these security risks confronted by all the overseas petroleum projects at present , the paper analyzes all the security risks systematicall in the aspect of society stability , natural disaster , public sanita-tion, accidents as well as comprehensive management , gets the roots of them after absorbing so many raw materials collected from kinds of petroleum managers riched in the experience and management of overseas projects , then builds up the early warning index hierarcy that has two layers .Then, with the help of AHP and comprehensive fuzzy evaluation , calculating and standardizing the weights of all the early warning indexes , the early warning meth-od targeted at the abroad security risksis obtained , when the fuzzy set for the early warning method is established . Finaly, the paper give out the application process and the new method is used in an African country .The analysis result is accorded with the present situation , so that the early warning method can effectively increases the accuracyfor the early warning of security in this country , and possesses much more applicable value in the abroad petroleum projects.